047
FXUS65 KTWC 270915
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
215 AM MST MON APR 27 2026
SYNOPSIS
LESS WIND THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE AREA WILL BE
BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS BY TUESDAY AND REMAIN THERE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM LATER THIS WEEK WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE AREA TO THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED A CLEAR SKY
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM, DUE LATER
IN THE WEEK, WAS WELL OUT IN THE PACIFIC, AROUND 32.7N/139W OR
1200 MILES WEST OF LA.
MUCH LESS WIND TO START THE WEEK VERSUS WHAT OCCURRED THIS PAST
WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED, THERE WILL
STILL BE SOME AFTERNOON GUSTINESS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY AND BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
MENTIONED ABOVE WILL BE APPROACHING SOUTHERN CA/NORTHERN BAJA
LATE WEDNESDAY WITH THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENING UP FROM TOP DOWN
AS PWAT VALUES INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND RANGING FROM 0.40"
NORTHERN AREAS TO 0.80" ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. LIKELY
TO SEE MOSTLY VIRGA DEVELOPING LATE WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH CAN'T
RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES AFTER SUNSET WEDNESDAY. WITH THAT SAID,
AND AFTER COORDINATION WITH WFO PSR, LOWERED THE NBM POPS/QPF
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
DAYS 4 TO 7 (THURSDAY APRIL 30 TO SUNDAY MAY 3)
THERE REMAINS PLENTY UNCERTAINTY AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS STILL
SHOWING DIFFERENCES ON TIMING (GFS/GEFS FASTER VS ECMWF/EPS
SLOWER), DEPTH, MOISTURE AND QPF (LARGE SPREADS). AT THIS TIME,
SHOWER CHANCES FOR THURSDAY HAVE INCREASED TO 20-45% VALLEYS
AND 25-60% MOUNTAINS VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS MID-LEVEL COLD POOL MOVES THROUGH.
THIS SYSTEM PUSHES EAST ON FRIDAY WITH LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS. NEXT WEEKEND IS DRY AND WARMER.
OVERALL NO ISSUES WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST PROVIDED BY THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THIS PERIOD. STAY TUNED AS THE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS (MAY 4 TO MAY 10)
TEMPERATURE: LEANING ABOVE NORMAL (35-38%)
PRECIPITATION: LEANING ABOVE NORMAL NE OF SAFFORD (33-35%)
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 28/12Z.
SKC MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE VALID PD. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL MOVING ACROSS FAR SE AZ,
OR FROM KTUS SE, BTWN 27/20Z AND 28/12Z. MUCH LESS SFC WINDS AT
THE TAF SITES VERSUS WHAT OCCURRED THIS PAST WEEKEND. THUS
EXPECT TERRAIN DRIVEN SFC WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 27/16Z AND
AFT 28/03Z. AT THE OTHER TIMES, SWLY/WLY SFC WINDS 8-16 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS FOR KDUG/KALK. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
AFTER A BREEZY TO WINDY WEEKEND, LIGHTER WINDS
WILL BE AROUND THROUGH MID-WEEK (THOUGH SOME BREEZES CONTINUE
NEAR THE NM BORDER). THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN BY AROUND
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY RESULTING IN INCREASED MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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