744
FXUS65 KTWC 271950
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1250 PM MST MON APR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TODAY: ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR COCHISE COUNTY.
- TOMORROW TO EARLY WEDNESDAY: WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH
BREEZES. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN FAR EASTERN
COCHISE COUNTY AND ALONG THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE.
- LATE WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY: CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
INCREASING UP TO 40-50% BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE
10-20% FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON BREEZES THIS
AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM LATER THIS WEEK
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA TO LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
TODAY'S WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN,
PROVIDING SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES.
THE STRONGEST BREEZES WILL BE EAST OF TUCSON AND THEREFORE
ELEVATING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR COCHISE COUNTY AND AREAS
ALONG THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE. TOMORROW, WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY
LESS.
OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS POISED TO ENTER OUR PICTURE BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE ENSEMBLE
MODELS ON THE TIMING OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM. THERE ARE EVIDENCE
FOR LATE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY AND EVIDENCE FOR A THURSDAY TO
FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. AT THE MOMENT, WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE,
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN THE LATE NIGHT
ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THURSDAY TO FRIDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT INCREASES TO THE 97-99TH PERCENTILE
BY THURSDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION WILL BE SOUTH OF US TO
ADVECT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THERE IS A WIDE
RANGE OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO THE DISCREPANCY OF THE
EVOLUTION. THE EFI HAS A SHIFT-OF-TAILS UP TO 4-5 FOR THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE BUT LOW CONFIDENCE WITHIN ITS
MEMBERS. THIS SHIFT OF TAILS SHOWS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MORE
THAN NORMAL AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WHICH IS THE THE EXTREME AND THE
ABOVE THE 95TH PERCENTILE OF THE ENSEMBLE EUROPEAN MODEL. YET,
UNLIKE THE EXTREME, ENSEMBLE EUROPEAN FOR TUCSON WILL BE
0.05-0.15 INCHES (25-75TH PERCENTILE) WHERE THE ENSEMBLE GFS HAS
0.22-0.55 INCHES (25TH-75TH PERCENTILE). QUITE A SPREAD IN
OUTCOMES BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN ENSEMBLES, BUT IT DEPENDS ON THE
TIMING/EVOLUTION OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD RESOLVE
ITSELF IN THE NEXT FEW RUNS. STAY TUNE FOR MORE DETAILS.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 29/00Z.
SCT-BKN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS AT OR AROUND 20K FT AGL, MAINLY
SOUTHEAST OF KTUS TOWARDS KDUG THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
TODAY'S SFC WINDS SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY AT 8-16 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KTS WITH KDUG EXPERIENCING THE STRONGER
WINDS. BY 28/03Z, WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS AND TERRAIN
DRIVEN. AFTER 28/18Z, WINDS WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY AT 8-14
KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON BREEZES TODAY AND
TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF TUCSON. THIS WILL BRING
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF COCHISE COUNTY
TODAY AND FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY FOR TOMORROW. A
WEATHER WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION STARTING LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY. BY THE WEEKEND,
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL RETURN TO A WARM AND DRYING TREND RIGHT
BEFORE ANOTHER POTENTIAL WEATHER SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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