853
FXUS65 KTWC 280920
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
220 AM MST TUE APR 28 2026
SYNOPSIS
NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON
BREEZES TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE NEXT PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM
BRINGS COOL TEMPERATURES AND A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. DRY THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY THIS MORNING AS PATCHES OF THIN
CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE THRU UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT. ADDITIONAL
HIGH CLOUDS WERE APPROACHING BAJA WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS TODAY WILL RUN AROUND
2 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED OUR UPCOMING WEATHER
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY WAS
LOCATED AT 29N/133.4W OR JUST UNDER 1000 MILES WEST OF SAN
DIEGO. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO NORTHERN BAJA TOMORROW
MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA
ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN UP FROM TOP DOWN WITH PWATS
RISING INTO THE 0.50" TO 0.80" RANGE ALTHOUGH SOME CAMS ARE
SHOWING PWATS RISING TO OVER 1" BY THURSDAY MORNING. THERE
STILL REMAINS TIMING ISSUES WITH PUSHING THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE GFS/GEFS AROUND 12 HOURS FASTER THAN ECWMF/EPS.
AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE TWO PRECIP EVENTS, THE
FIRST STEADY LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN THE
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WEST OF TUCSON WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 400-600 J/KG
RANGE WITH THESE STORMS PUSHING EAST INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
QPF VALUES ARE UP VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO WITH HIGHEST VALUES
BETWEEN 0.40" AND 1" ACROSS SANTA CRUZ AND COCHISE COUNTIES
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
WESTERN AREAS WILL MISS OUT ON THIS MUCH NEEDED RAIN. THIS
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS
WHICH NORMALLY HAPPENS WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THANKS TO
THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RUN 4 TO 11
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THIS EVENT ON THE LAST DAY OF THE MONTH COULD CHANGE WHAT HAS
BEEN A DRY MONTH FOR MOST OF THE AREA TO END UP BEING ABOVE
NORMAL. INTERESTING.
DAYS 4 TO 7 (FRIDAY MAY 1 TO MONDAY MAY 4)
MAY STARTS OFF A LITTLE UNSETTLED AS A WEATHER SYSTEM DROPS IN
BEHIND THE THURSDAY SYSTEM TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
NEAR THE AZ/NM STATE LINE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHORT-WAVE
RIDGING SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. OVERALL NO ISSUES WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
PROVIDED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THIS PERIOD.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS (MAY 5 TO MAY 11)
TEMPERATURE: LEANING ABOVE NORMAL (35-38%)
PRECIPITATION: LEANING ABOVE NORMAL FROM SAFFORD NE (33-38%)
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 29/12Z.
SCT THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL THRU 28/20Z, THEN BCMG
BKN AOA 18K FT AGL THRU END OF VALID PD. SFC WIND LESS THAN 10
KTS AND TERRAIN DRIVEN THRU 28/17Z THEN AGAIN AFTER 29/04Z. AT
OTHER TIMES WLY/NWLY 8-15 KTS WITH OCNL GUSTS 20-25 KTS,
ESPECIALLY AT KDUG. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY WITH AFTERNOON BREEZES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE AFTERNOON BREEZES WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS TO AREAS EAST OF A SAFFORD TO BISBEE LINE.
A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY AND BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MAINLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GOOD WETTING RAINS
FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY THE WEEKEND,
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL RETURN TO A WARM AND DRYING TREND RIGHT
BEFORE ANOTHER POTENTIAL WEATHER SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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