472
FXUS65 KTWC 282106
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
206 PM MST TUE APR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW FOR
COCHISE, GRAHAM, AND GREENLEE COUNTIES.
- A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY 0.1-.5 INCHES
REGION WIDE WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE EAST AND SOUTH
OF TUCSON.
- THIS WEEKEND WILL HAVE A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WITH
EASTERLY MORNING BREEZES.
SYNOPSIS
NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON
BREEZES TODAY AND TOMORROW, RESULTING IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS COOL
TEMPERATURES AND A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DRY AND
EASTERLY BREEZES THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAKING ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY AND IT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THIS WILL BE OUR
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE THAT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AS
EARLY AS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME, IT WILL REMAIN
DRY IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WITH WESTERLY BREEZES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR AREAS EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
OUT PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT WILL BE INCREASING UP TO 0.5 AND
THEN UP TO 0.75-0.80 INCHES OF WATER BY THURSDAY. THE BULK OF
THE HIGHER VALUES WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
THE REGION AND SOUTH INTO MEXICO. YET, ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE STILL
IN A PICKLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM. THE GEFS HAS
THE EARLY ENTRANCE SOLUTION WHILE THE ENSEMBLE EURO IS THE
SLOWER SOLUTION. BOTH BRING RAINFALL INTO THE REGION BUT THE
PLACEMENT IS EITHER JUST WEST OF TUCSON OR MORE EAST OF TUCSON.
PLUS THE RANGE OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITHIN
EACH OF THE ENSEMBLE MODEL. GENERALLY, RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
0.1 TO 0.5 INCHES TOTAL ACROSS THE REGION. THE MOUNTAINS WILL
SEE HIGHER TOTALS DUE TO THE UPSLOPE ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL WINDS. NOT TO MENTION, AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A
FEW HI-RES MODELS ARE HINTING A ROBUST THUNDERSTORM GROWTH
STARTING IN THE WEST AND MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
SOLUTION IS LOW AT THE MOMENT AS THE SOLUTION WAS PRESENTED NEAR
THE END OF THE MODELS' RUN. A WRINKLE TO THIS FORECAST IS IF
THE LOW CENTER IS MORE SOUTH, IT WILL BRING MAINLY CLOUD COVER
AND LIGHT TO LITTLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
BY THE WEEKEND, SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL DRY OUT AND WARM UP WITH
MINOR HEATRISK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL SET UP TO THE
WEST WITH MINOR SHORT RIDGING OVER THE REGION, LEADING TO TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR EASTERLY BREEZES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE IN THE GILA RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION. WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY MONDAY AND LOW CONFIDENCE
ON RAIN CHANCES AS IT WON'T HAVE A GOOD MOISTURE SOURCE.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 30/00Z.
BKN AOA 18-20K FT AGL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH FEW-SCT
CLOUDS AOA 12-15K FT AGL DEVELOPING AFTER 29/20Z. SFC WIND
WLY/NWLY 8-15 KTS WITH OCNL GUSTS 20-25 KTS, ESPECIALLY AT KDUG.
AFTER 29/03Z, WINDS LESS THAN 12 KTS AND TERRAIN DRIVEN THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BY 29/18Z, WLY WINDS 8-15 KTS WITH OCNL
GUSTS UP TO 25KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS WITH WESTERLY BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TOMORROW. THIS WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE BISBEE TO SAFFORD LINE. PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MAINLY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR GOOD WETTING RAINS FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BY THE WEEKEND, SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL RETURN TO
A WARM AND DRYING TREND RIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER POTENTIAL WEATHER
SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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