481
FXUS65 KTWC 290930
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 AM MST WED APR 29 2026
SYNOPSIS
NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON
BREEZES TODAY, RESULTING IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THE NEXT PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS
TEMPERATURES AND A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO MAINLY FRIDAY MORNING. DRY AND
EASTERLY BREEZES THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED CONSIDERABLE
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA UNDER STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OUT AHEAD OF A PACIFIC UPPER LOW WHICH WAS LOCATED 700
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO. FOR TODAY, HIGHS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND THERE WILL BE AFTERNOON BREEZES WHICH
WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EAST OF A
SAFFORD TO BISBEE LINE. OTHERWISE THE MAIN THING TO OCCUR TODAY
WILL BE THE ATMOSPHERE SLOWLY MOISTENING UP FROM TOP DOWN AS THE
ABOVE MENTIONED PACIFIC UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ALONG
30N TOWARD NRN BAJA. PWATS THIS MORNING ARE LESS THAN 0.25"
ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL BE RISING INTO THE 0.25" NORTH TO 0.75"
RANGE LATE TONIGHT. THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN INCREASE
THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING THROUGH. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE SPREAD IN RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA, AS THEY ARE LOWER VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO,
ALONG WITH WILL THERE BE AN INITIAL SHOWERY BAND SETTING UP
SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON THURSDAY MORNING THEN AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WEST OF TUCSON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
PUSHING EAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS NOT
SURPRISING WITH A SYSTEM COMING IN FROM THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN
PACIFIC. DRYING OUT FRIDAY FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A LINGERING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE AZ/NM BORDER.
DAYS 4 TO 7 (SATURDAY MAY 2 TO TUESDAY MAY 5)
SATURDAY WITH BE WARMER WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEKEND FOR THE LOWER DESERTS WITH MINOR HEAT RISK AS HIGHS WE
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SEE A
COOLING TREND AS THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. WILL THIS
SYSTEM BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA OR JUST BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS. STAY
TUNED. OVERALL NO ISSUES WITH THE FORECAST PROVIDED BY THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THIS PERIOD.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS (MAY 6 TO MAY 12)
TEMPERATURE: LEANING ABOVE NORMAL (35-40%)
PRECIPITATION: LEANING ABOVE NORMAL (39-44%)
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 30/12Z.
BKN-OVC AOA 18K FT AGL THRU THE FCST PD WITH SCT CLOUDS 12-15K
FT AGL DVLPG AFTER 29/20Z. SFC WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS AND
TERRAIN DRIVEN THRU 29/17Z THEN AGAIN AFT 30/06Z. AT OTHER TIMES
WLY SFC WINDS 8-15 KTS WITH OCNL GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS WITH WESTERLY BREEZES THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE BISBEE TO SAFFORD LINE. A PACIFIC WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY AND
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GOOD WETTING
RAINS FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY THE WEEKEND,
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL RETURN TO A WARM AND DRYING TREND RIGHT
BEFORE ANOTHER POTENTIAL WEATHER SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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