215
FXUS65 KTWC 292148
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
248 PM MST WED APR 29 2026
SYNOPSIS
NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON BREEZES TODAY,
RESULTING IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE NEXT PACIFIC
WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS TEMPERATURES AND A
DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY INTO MAINLY FRIDAY MORNING. DRY AND EASTERLY BREEZES
THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA IS CURRENTLY UNDER A THICK LAYER OF
CIRRUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS.
THESE CLOUDS ARE WORKING TO MOISTEN UP THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE
TOP DOWN AHEAD OF THE INCOMING PACIFIC LOW.
TOMORROW IS THE MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR THE WEEK. THE PACIFIC LOW
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW BRINGING SHOWERS, ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, AND GUSTY WINDS. MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO
HIGHLIGHT THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF ARIZONA IN COCHISE AND
SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS,
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST RANGING BETWEEN 0.25 TO 0.55 IN THE
VALLEYS AND 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS. FOR THE REST OF
THE AREA INCLUDING TUCSON, RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY REMAIN
UNDER 0.25 INCHES. HI-RES MODELS HAVE GENERAL SHOWERS BEGINNING
OVERNIGHT FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON THAT END IN THE
MORNING, THEN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE MAIN SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THERE WILL BE LINGERING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS ALONG THRU ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER AND THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS WITH VERY LITTLE RAINFALL ACCUMULATION. WITH THE
WARMER ORIGINS OF THIS SYSTEM, TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY.
AS THE SYSTEM EXISTS THE AREA, HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO FORM
OVERHEAD AS A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WILL CREATE A PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE
SURFACE BRINGING BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER
GILA RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. CURRENT MODELS HAVE THIS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY, BRINGING
GENERAL CHANCES (15-20%) FOR SHOWERS. THIS SYSTEM COULD ALSO
BRING THE TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 01/00Z.
BKN-OVC AOA 18K FT AGL AND FEW-SCT CLOUDS 12-15K FT AGL THRU THE
PERIOD. -SHRA/TSRA 30/21Z FOR KDUG, THEN EXPANDS TO INCLUDE ALL
TERMINALS AFT 01/00Z. SFC WINDS SWLY/WLY SFC WINDS 8-15 KTS
WITH OCNL GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS THRU 30/03Z AND FROM 30/18Z THRU
THE END OF THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE, SFC WINDS REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS WITH WESTERLY BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
BRING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
BISBEE TO SAFFORD LINE. A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL INCREASE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY AND BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GOOD WETTING RAINS FOR THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY THE WEEKEND, SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
WILL RETURN TO A WARM AND DRYING TREND RIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER
POTENTIAL WEATHER SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JT
AVIATION...JT
FIRE WEATHER...JT
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