988
FXUS65 KTWC 302037
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
137 PM MST THU APR 30 2026
SYNOPSIS
A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE (40-70%) OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. DRY AND EASTERLY BREEZES THIS WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING THIS AFTERNOON
MAY IMPACT THE EVENING COMMUTE (3 PM TO 5 PM MST) WITH BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS LASTING INTO THE LATE
EVENING TO EARLY MORNING HOURS (11 PM TO 1 AM MST).
-STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH (30-50%) MAY RESULT IN
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WITH POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR.
-STORMS TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREAS IN COCHISE, SANTA CRUZ,
AND EASTERN PIMA COUNTIES MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
PRECIPITATION CHANCES (40-70%) RETURN THIS AFTERNOON,
BRINGING A SHIFT FROM THE DRY STRETCH WE'VE HAD SINCE EARLY
APRIL AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THE
MORNING HAS BEEN MOSTLY DRY WITH SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER HANGING
AROUND SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON ALONG WITH A FEW SPRINKLES
CLOSE TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN COCHISE COUNTY.
YOU MAY HAVE NOTICED THE CLOUDS CLEARING A LITTLE BIT IN THE TUCSON
METRO, AND ESPECIALLY FOR POINTS JUST TO THE WEST. THIS WILL BE THE
FOCUS AREA FOR SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE (10-20%) FOR SBCAPE VALUES TO EXCEED 500 J/KG LOCALLY.
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT WE'LL SEE
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO
FORM AROUND THE EVENING COMMUTE TIMEFRAME (ABOUT 3 PM TO 5 PM MST)
IN THE TUCSON METRO AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. AFTER 6 PM,
COVERAGE APPEARS TO INCREASE A BIT BEFORE THE WHOLE SYSTEM GLIDES
SLOWLY TO THE EAST. BY LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
(BETWEEN ABOUT 10 PM AND 1 AM MST) SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST.
WHILE INITIALLY, THE COVERAGE MAY APPEAR TO BE PRETTY HIT OR
MISS, ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM COULD RESULT IN BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. IN FACT, THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE (30-50%) FOR A GIVEN STORM TO PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH SUPPORTED BY RAP DCAPE VALUES AROUND
800-1000 J/KG. THERE IS ALSO A MEDIUM CHANCE (30-50%) FOR
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM A SERIES OF TRAINING STORMS IN A
3-HOUR PERIOD TO TOTAL IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH ACROSS SANTA CRUZ,
COCHISE, AND FAR SOUTHEAST PIMA COUNTIES. WITH HREF MEAN
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 0.80 TO 1.0 INCHES, LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
TUCSON. WPC HAS PLACED COCHISE COUNTY IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
FLASH FLOODING WITH A 5% CHANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD OCCURRING
WITHIN 25 MILES OF A POINT.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT FOR TUCSON, EVEN QUICK BURSTS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL CAN LEAD TO SUBSTANTIAL WATER IN ROADWAY
DIPS AND IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IMPACTING COMMUTES. AVOID DRIVING
THROUGH FLOODED ROADS. AS FOR THE WIND, IT DOESN'T TAKE MUCH WIND
AFTER AN EXTENDED DRY SPELL TO KICK UP SOME DUST FROM ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS. THE I-10 CORRIDOR BETWEEN PHOENIX
AND TUCSON LOOKS TO BE A POTENTIAL HOT SPOT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR AREAS OF BLOWING DUST RESULTING IN SUDDEN REDUCED
VISIBILITY.
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL KEEP LOW END CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAINLY FOR
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
DAYS 4 TO 7 (SUNDAY MAY 3 TO WEDNESDAY MAY 6) SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WITH LINGERING MOISTURE
HANGING AROUND. OTHERWISE IT'LL BE A WARM DAY WITH MINOR HEAT RISK
FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. COOLER MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A PACIFIC
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. BREEZY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS TUESDAY EAST OF
TUCSON. TUESDAY LIKELY THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
HIGHS 5- 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. OVERALL NO ISSUES WITH THE
FORECAST PROVIDED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THIS
PERIOD.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS (MAY 7 TO MAY 13)
TEMPERATURE: LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL (50-60%)
PRECIPITATION: LEANING ABOVE NORMAL (33-40%)
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 02/00Z.
SCT-BKN 8K-10K FT AGL WITH SCT -SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA. GUST TO 35 KTS
PSBL NR -TSRA. OTRW SFC WINDS 8-15 KTS WITH OCNL GUSTS TO 22-26 KTS
THRU 01/04Z. THEREAFTER, SFC WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS AND TERRAIN
DRIVEN THRU 01/18Z BECOMING WLY/NWLY AT 8-12 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO
22 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL INCREASE MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR GOOD WETTING RAINS FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BY THE WEEKEND, SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL RETURN TO
A WARM AND DRYING TREND RIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER POTENTIAL WEATHER
SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
APRIL 30TH RAINFALL RECORDS.
TUCSON AIRPORT 0.40" IN 1981
NOGALES (TOWN SITE) 0.32" IN 1981
SAFFORD (TOWN SITE) 0.29" IN 1951
DOUGLAS AIRPORT 0.12" IN 1951
TOMBSTONE 0.62" IN 1951
WILLCOX 0.31" IN 1951
BENSON 0.29" IN 1951
SIERRA VISTA 0.10" IN 1980
AJO 0.20" IN 1915
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DVS
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