663
FXUS65 KTWC 012230
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
330 PM MST FRI MAY 1 2026
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY WINDS WITH A MODEST WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND. A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION
IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER CURRENTLY THE
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM FAVORS KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA.
DISCUSSION
NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA WITH SOME PUFFY CUMULUS CLOUDS FOCUSED MAINLY HUGGING THE
TERRAIN. TO THE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND MOUNT
GRAHAM A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP FROM RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND LIFT
FROM TERRAIN AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER INTO THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER SHOT FOR A FEW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY IN THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXITS THE AREA. EASTERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP LATE THIS EVENING INTO MIDDAY TOMORROW WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN THE GILA RIVER VALLEY.
LOOKING INTO NEXT WEEK, A PACIFIC LOW WILL LIKELY BE MOVING ONSHORE
IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW, WE'LL SEE A
BRIEF WARMING AND DRYING TREND WITH INCREASING BREEZINESS.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE PUSHING 90 DEGREES FROM THE TUCSON METRO
WEST. PROBABILITY OF 90 DEGREES FOR THE HIGH TOMORROW IN TUCSON
IS 25 PERCENT AND SUNDAY 65 PERCENT, RESPECTIVELY. THIS IS ONLY
A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, BUT WILL BE SLIGHT WARM UP FROM
WHERE WE HAVE BEEN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WE'LL SEE ELEVATED BREEZINESS WITH PREVAILING DRY
CONDITIONS BEFORE THE TROUGH ARRIVES BRINGING INCREASING MOISTURE
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW THE BEST CHANCES (30-50%) FOR PRECIPITATION
LOOK TO REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH SLIGHT CHANCES
(20-40%) EXTENDING DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WITH THE BEST CHANCES
OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE, BUT THERE STILL IS
A COUPLE DAYS WHERE FOR THINGS TO SHIFT IN TERMS OF TIMING OR
TRAJECTORY.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 03/00Z.
FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 8K-13K FT AGL EAST OF KTUS-KOLS, WITH A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER/-TSRA NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
AND WHITE MOUNTAINS THRU 02/09Z. SFC WINDS WLY/NWLY 8-13 KTS THRU
02/05Z. SFC WINDS BECOME ELY/SELY, ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN LOCATIONS
INCLUDING KSAD-KDUG. STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY LIKELY AT KSAD
WITH 15-20 KT WINDS AND GUSTS TO 28 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAINLY ABOVE 15-20 PERCENT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK (LOWER THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WEST OF TUCSON).
AN APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL INCREASE WINDS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS WELL. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN AREAS OPEN TO EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW.
WINDS OF 18-23 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH
THE GILA RIVER VALLEY, WITH BREEZY BUT NOT AS STRONG WINDS
ELSEWHERE. WINDS THEN TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SUNDAY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 15 TO 20 MPH WINDS AND GUSTS
TO 35 MPH IN THE WINDIER SPOTS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. THE CROSSING
SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS, HOWEVER
THE PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN IS ON THE LOW SIDE AND MAINLY
CONTAINED TO MOUNTAIN AREAS.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DVS
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