273  
FNUS75 KTWC 041147  
FWSTWC  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR EAST EAGLE RX...USFS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ  
447 AM MST MON MAY 4 2026  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0600 MST ON MAY 04.  
   
DISCUSSION  
 
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AHEAD OF AN  
INCOMING STORM SYSTEM. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20  
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS  
INCREASE AS EARLY AS LATE THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH MORE LIKELY AFTER  
2000 MST ALONG AN INCOMING FRONT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE FURTHER  
ON TUESDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS  
SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH A 30 PERCENT  
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ALONG WITH A  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RELATIVE  
HUMIDITY WILL RISE FROM AROUND 30 PERCENT TODAY TO ABOVE 50 PERCENT  
ON TUESDAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND 50 DEGREES TUESDAY.  
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL ON WEDNESDAY, THEN A WARMING AND DRYING  
TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.  
   
TODAY  
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE  
LATE AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-59 DEGREES.  
MIN HUMIDITY........28-31 PERCENT.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH  
IN THE MORNING, INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 MPH IN THE  
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 19 KNOTS INCREASING TO 21  
TO 29 KNOTS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO  
EXCELLENT (142700 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
TIME (MST) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM  
SKY (%).........68 57 66 79  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 10  
TEMP............40 51 57 56  
RH..............74 45 30 31  
20 FT WIND......W 5G13 SW 10G20 SW 12G22 SW 14G25  
MIX HGT (FT)....BLW100 2400 4800 6300  
TRANSPORT WIND..W 10 W 19 SW 25 SW 28  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..0 46 120 176  
VENTRATE CAT....POOR GOOD EXNT EXNT  
   
TONIGHT  
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING,  
THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT INCREASING TO 80 PERCENT AFTER  
MIDNIGHT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-39 DEGREES.  
MAX HUMIDITY........97-100 PERCENT.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN  
THE EVENING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200 FT AGL EARLY IN  
THE EVENING.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 14 TO 23 KNOTS DECREASING TO 11 TO 13  
KNOTS IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (79700 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO  
MARGINAL (10300 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING  
DECREASING TO POOR (2800 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE  
NIGHT.  
 
TIME (MST) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM  
SKY (%).........85 96 96 82  
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............30 30 40 50  
TEMP............48 41 40 38  
RH..............45 69 81 93  
20 FT WIND......SW 9G22 W 8G19 W 7G17 SW 6G14  
MIX HGT (FT)....3500 700 800 600  
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 23 W 14 W 13 W 12  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..80 10 10 8  
VENTRATE CAT....VYGD MRGL MRGL POOR  
   
TUESDAY  
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. RAIN  
SHOWERS LIKELY BEFORE 0900, THEN CHANCE OF  
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.  
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT DECREASING TO 30 PERCENT IN THE LATE  
MORNING AND THE AFTERNOON.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....48-51 DEGREES.  
MIN HUMIDITY........51-54 PERCENT.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH  
IN THE MORNING, BECOMING SOUTHWEST 18 TO 25 MPH  
WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND  
ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 11 TO 17 KNOTS INCREASING TO 21 TO 25  
KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (7000 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (138200 KNOT-FT)  
IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
TIME (MST) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM  
SKY (%).........79 79 78 78  
WEATHER COV.....LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........ S CHC CHANCE S CHC  
CWR.............70 70 70 70  
TEMP............37 42 46 49  
RH..............98 83 70 54  
20 FT WIND......W 7G15 SW 10G18 SW 12G20 SW 14G29  
MIX HGT (FT)....600 1300 3200 5500  
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 11 SW 13 SW 17 SW 25  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..7 17 54 138  
VENTRATE CAT....POOR MRGL GOOD EXNT  
 
 
FORECASTER...EDWARDS  
REQUESTED BY...JOE NAMES  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2610920.14/TWC  
.DELDT 05/04/26  
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0  
.EMAIL JOSEPH.NAMES@USDA.GOV  
 
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