214
FXUS65 KTWC 160848
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
148 AM MST SAT MAY 16 2026
SYNOPSIS
SUNNY AND WARM ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES 3 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TODAY. A DRY
WEATHER SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND
WILL BRING ABOUT BREEZY CONDITIONS SATURDAY, AND THEN WINDY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.
DISCUSSION
SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE COMING WEEK. WARMER
TEMPERATURES 3 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO TODAY WITH A SLIGHT 'COOLDOWN' AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OUTSIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE DECREASE, THE MAIN IMPACT
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE ELEVATED WINDS. SURFACE SOUTHWEST WINDS
AT 10-20 MPH AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH BEGIN TO PICK UP LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AT 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS 35-45 MPH. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS BRING NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING, WITH A RED FLAG WARNING IN
EFFECT SUNDAY. THESE ELEVATED WINDS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO LOFT
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST, PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY. DUST-PRONE AREAS
LIKE ALONG INTERSTATE 10 FROM SAN SIMON TO WILLCOX AND FROM
TUCSON TO ELOY CAN SEE DECREASES IN VISIBILITY DUE TO AREAS OF
CHANNELIZED DUST.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES, THERE IS GENERAL TROUGHINESS THAT WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 17/12Z.
SKC THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. SFC WINDS LIGHT AND MAINLY
SELY/SLY AT 10 KTS OR LESS, THEN AFT 16/18Z BECOMING WLY/SWLY
WIND 10-18 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS DIMINISH TO 10 KTS OR LESS AGAIN AFT 17/03Z
AND BECOME SELY/SLY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE THIS EVENING WITH 20-FOOT WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 MPH, AND THEN RAMP UP EVEN MORE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY TO AROUND
20-30 MPH SUSTAINED AND GUSTS 35-45 MPH. THE COMBINATION OF
THESE STRONG WINDS AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY FOR THE MAJORITY OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA, THEN NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS AGAIN SOUTH AND
EAST OF TUCSON MONDAY. A RED FLAG WARNING FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 151/152/153/154 IS IN PLACE FROM 11 AM MST SUNDAY MORNING
UNTIL 11 PM MST SUNDAY EVENING.
OTHERWISE, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 3 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH TODAY WITH COOLING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LESS WINDS THEREAFTER FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO NEXT WEEK
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 6-16 PERCENT RANGE IN THE VALLEYS AND
10-20 PERCENT IN THE MOUNTAINS.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY FOR AZZ151>154.
JT
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