092
FXUS65 KTWC 161924
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1223 PM MST SAT MAY 16 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL
THIS WEEK. A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA THROUGH MONDAY. LESS WIND THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK ALONG
WITH PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS.
DISCUSSION
A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL UTAH BY EARLY
MONDAY, SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING THEN PREVAILS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AS A STORM SYSTEM DROPS INTO
THE GREAT BASIN. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN
ON MONDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY WHEN SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
OVERALL, NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
EASTERN AREAS (GREENLEE, GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES) THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR ON MONDAY, WITH
MOST LOCATIONS ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS IN THE UPPER TEENS (OR EVEN
HIGHER), ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF COCHISE COUNTY MAY SEE A HOUR OR SO OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ON
SUNDAY, INCLUDING FIRE WEATHER ZONES 151/152/153/154. A RED FLAG
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MST TO 11 PM MST FOR THESE
AREAS ON SUNDAY. THESE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ALSO PRODUCE SOME
BLOWING DUST ISSUES (ESPECIALLY SUNDAY) IN THE DUST PRONE AREAS
ALONG INTERSTATE 10 FROM WILLCOX EASTWARD TO THE NEW MEXICO STATE
LINE AND BETWEEN MARANA AND ELOY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GO FROM A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY, TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY, BACK TO A COUPLE
OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 18/00Z.
CLEAR SKIES/SKC CONDITIONS THRU 17/18Z, WITH INCREASING HIGH LEVEL
CIRRUS CLOUDS AFT 17/18Z. SFC WIND SWLY AT 14-20 KTS AND GUSTS TO 24-
30 KTS THRU 17/03Z. BETWEEN 17/03Z AND 17/16Z, SFC WIND GENERALLY
SLY/SELY AT 12 KTS OR LESS, EXCEPT AT KALK WHERE SWLY SFC WIND WILL
CONTINUE AT 12-17 KTS. AFT 17/16Z, INCREASING SLY/SWLY SFC WIND WITH
SPEEDS OF 21-26 KTS AND GUSTS TO 35-40 KTS BY 17/19Z THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THE VALID PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL. A STORM SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY. LESS WIND THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS. MIN RH VALUES WILL BE 6-14 PERCENT IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 8-18 PERCENT IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNDAY
AND THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE 3-7
PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
BREEZY 20-FOOT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TONIGHT BEFORE SLACKENING
OFF. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN SOUTHWEST
COCHISE COUNTY WHERE ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. WINDY 20-FOOT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY AND A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM
MST THROUGH 11 PM MST FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 151/152/153/154. WIND
SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
BREEZY 20-FOOT SOUTHWEST WINDS PERSIST ON MONDAY, ESPECIALLY EAST OF
TUCSON ACROSS PORTIONS OF COCHISE, GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES.
WIND SPEEDS ON MONDAY WILL BE 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. RH
VALUES WILL BE ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AT MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY IN THE
UPPER TEENS (OR HIGHER), ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF COCHISE COUNTY MAY SEE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR AN HOUR OR SO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY FOR AZZ151>154.
ZELL
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