739
FXUS65 KTWC 170853
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
153 AM MST SUN MAY 17 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL
THIS WEEK. A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA THROUGH MONDAY. LESS WIND THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK ALONG
WITH PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS.
DISCUSSION
THE DRY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE BRINGING BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY IS CURRENTLY IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN TODAY
INTO TOMORROW. THE MAIN STORY WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE
THE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY, WITH LINGERING
BREEZINESS MONDAY. CURRENT OVERNIGHT WINDS HAVE REMAINED A TAD
MORE ELEVATED THAN WE ARE USED TO AT 6-15 MPH, WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. SOUTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP FOR AREAS SOUTH
OF TUCSON FIRST AROUND 8 AM MST AT 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 MPH. WINDS BECOME AREA-WIDE AROUND 11 AM MST AT 20-30 MPH
WITH GUSTS 35-45 MPH. AREAS PRONE TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SEE
THE STRONGEST WINDS AND GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CAPABLE OF
LOFTING AREAS OF CHANNELIZED DUST AND REDUCE VISIBILITIES,
ESPECIALLY FOR DUST-PRONE AREAS ALONG I-10 FROM ELOY TO TUCSON
AND WILLCOX TO SAN SIMON. WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET,
BUT REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH OF
TUCSON. BREEZY WINDS CONTINUE MONDAY AT 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
30-35 MPH. THE COMBINATION OF THE WINDS AND LOW RHS WILL LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND NEAR CRITICAL
TOMORROW, MORE IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES, THERE WILL BE GENERAL TROUGHINESS,
KEEPING SOUTHWEST ARIZONA DRY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 18/12Z.
CLEAR SKIES/SKC CONDITIONS THRU 17/18Z, WITH INCREASING HIGH LEVEL
CIRRUS CLOUDS AFT 17/18Z. SFC WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS THEN
INCREASE TO 8-15 KTS AND GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS BEGINNING AT KDUG
AND KOLS AROUND 17/15Z, THEN INCREASING TO 21-26 KTS AND GUSTS
TO 35-40 KTS AREAWIDE THRU 18/04Z. SFC WINDS DECREASE TO SPEEDS
OF 8-15 KTS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS THRU THE END OF
THE PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL. A STORM SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH MONDAY. LESS WIND THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS. MIN RH VALUES WILL BE
6-14 PERCENT IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 8-18 PERCENT IN THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE 3-7 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WINDY 20-FOOT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH A
RED FLAG WARNING GOING INTO EFFECT FROM 11 AM MST THROUGH 11 PM
MST FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 151/152/153/154. WIND SPEEDS OF
20-30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH ARE EXPECTED TODAY. BREEZY
20-FOOT SOUTHWEST WINDS PERSIST ON MONDAY, ESPECIALLY EAST OF
TUCSON ACROSS PORTIONS OF COCHISE, GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES.
WIND SPEEDS ON MONDAY WILL BE 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30-35
MPH. RH VALUES WILL BE ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AT MOST LOCATIONS
MONDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS (OR HIGHER), ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF
COCHISE, GRAHAM, AND GREENLEE COUNTIES MAY SEE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR AN HOUR OR SO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY FOR AZZ151>154.
JT
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