811
FXUS65 KTWC 172122
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
222 PM MST SUN MAY 17 2026
SYNOPSIS
A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH
MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AND
REMAIN THERE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS HAS BROUGHT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
TODAY TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND THEN A LITTLE LESS WIND ON
MONDAY. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS
ON THE ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
MONDAY.
BAGGY TROFINESS WILL REMAIN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE HINTS IN
THE ENSEMBLE/DETERMINISTIC MODELS OF A WEAK INFLUX OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN ZONES THAT MAY RESULT IN SOME BUILD-
UPS OR A VERY LOW END 10-15% CHANCE OF HIGH-BASED MAINLY DRY
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MONDAY BEFORE WARMING
UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AND REMAINING IN THIS AREA INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK (MAY 25-31):
TEMPERATURE: LEANING ABOVE NORMAL (33-45%)
PRECIPITATION: LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL (50-60%)
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 19/00Z.
THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL
PASSING THRU THE AREA DURING THE VALID PD. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SCATTERED CLOUDS 7K-9K FT AGL WEST OF E78 (SELLS) BTWN 18/08Z
AND 18/15Z. SFC WINDS W/SW 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS 25-35 KTS THRU
18/05Z THEN DIMINISHING TO SLY 8-15 KTS THRU 18/10Z. W/SW WINDS
10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS RETURN AFT 18/16Z. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM
MST TONIGHT FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 151, 152, 153 & 154 AS
20-FOOT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAIN GUSTY 20-30 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER 11 PM. THE WINDS
TODAY ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN. 20-FOOT SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED MONDAY BUT
NOT AS STRONG AS SUNDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 35 MPH. RH VALUES WILL BE ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AT MOST
LOCATIONS MONDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS (OR HIGHER), ALTHOUGH
PORTIONS OF COCHISE, GRAHAM, AND GREENLEE COUNTIES MAY SEE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR AN HOUR OR SO MONDAY
AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY 4 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, THEN WARMING TO NEAR
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AND REMAINING THERE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MIN
RH VALUES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM 10-15 PERCENT FROM TUCSON EAST
TO 20-25 PERCENT WEST OF TUCSON. MIN RH VALUES TUESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND 6-16 PERCENT IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 8-20 PERCENT
IN THE MOUNTAINS.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ151>154.
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