642
FXUS65 KTWC 180727
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1227 AM MST MON MAY 18 2026
SYNOPSIS
A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THERE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN THE GREAT BASIN WILL KEEP
OUR WINDS A TAD ELEVATED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
MPH. WINDS THEN INCREASE TO 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH,
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON.
THESE ELEVATED WINDS CAN LEAD TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS, MORE IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION. OUTSIDE OF THE
WINDS, THE SKY CAN BE A TAD HAZY TODAY DUE TO LOFTED DUST FROM
THE STRONGER WINDS YESTERDAY, BUT THIS WILL CLEAR UP AS THE
WINDS DECREASE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE IN THE EARLY
EVENING TODAY.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES, THERE WILL BE GENERAL TROUGHINESS
LINGERING KEEPING US UNDER DRY, SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE AREA WITH MILDER WEATHER
WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING RIGHT AROUND NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 19/12Z.
THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS AOA 20K FT
AGL PASSING THRU THE AREA DURING THE VALID PD. SFC WINDS
SWLY/WLY AT 8-15 KTS THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
30 KTS RETURN AFT 18/16Z WITH STRONGEST WINDS AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF KTUS INCLUDING KDUG AND KOLS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
20-FOOT SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY WITH SPEEDS OF
15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH AS A WEATHER SYSTEM EXITS THE
REGION. RH VALUES WILL BE ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AT MOST
LOCATIONS TODAY IN THE UPPER TEENS (OR HIGHER), ALTHOUGH
PORTIONS OF COCHISE, GRAHAM, AND GREENLEE COUNTIES MAY SEE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR AN HOUR OR SO THIS
AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY 4 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, THEN WARMING TO NEAR
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AND REMAINING THERE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MIN
RH VALUES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 10-15 PERCENT FROM TUCSON EAST
TO 20-25 PERCENT WEST OF TUCSON. MIN RH VALUES TUESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND 6-16 PERCENT IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 8-20 PERCENT
IN THE MOUNTAINS.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
JT
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