899
FXUS65 KTWC 182146
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
246 PM MST MON MAY 18 2026
SYNOPSIS
A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM
TO NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THERE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
SO FAR TODAY BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA UNDER HAZY SKIES. SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH HAVE BEEN
MEASURED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER IN
COCHISE COUNTY. WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS
CONTRIBUTED TOWARD THE HAZY SKIES. BREEZINESS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON. MORE DETAILS IN THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW. OVERALL, TODAY HAS THE FEEL OF ANOTHER ONE OF
THOSE WINDY SONORAN DESERT DAYS WHERE TRASH CANS AND PATIO FURNITURE
MIGHT NOT WANT TO STAY UPRIGHT WITH THE SKY LOOKING A BIT HAZY FROM
BEING ALL STIRRED UP. AFTERNOON BREEZES WILL BEGIN TO TAPER SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET BUT RETURN AGAIN TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON. WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST
TO BE LIGHTER COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS, SO LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS
ARE EXPECTED. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, THIS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S OR ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY, WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP CLOSER TO NORMAL
(UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S) WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
BY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLES ARE TRYING TO
INTRODUCE RATHER MODEST MID-LEVEL MOISTURE (BETWEEN 0.5-0.8 INCHES
OF PRECIPITABLE WATER) IN CONJUNCTION WITH A UPPER LOW. IF THIS
PATTERN OCCURS IT MAY BRING INCREASED BREEZINESS, NONZERO CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION, AND TEMPERATURES TRENDING NEAR NORMAL LATE THIS
WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN AND HOW DRY IT
USUALLY IS THIS TIME OF YEAR, MY HUNCH IS THAT IT WILL BE TOUGH TO
SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM
WITHOUT GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE TOP-DOWN. WITH
THAT IN MIND, I WOULD EXPECT PREDOMINANTLY VIRGA AND CLOUD BUILDUPS
FROM THIS SYSTEM IF IT COMES TO FRUITION WITH PERHAPS A LOW END
CHANCE (10-15%) FOR AN ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM. THE NBM
CURRENTLY ADVERTISES A SLIGHT CHANCE (10-20%) FOR PRECIPITATION
FOCUSED OVER THE TERRAIN MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON AND IN
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT
BEING SAID, UNLESS THERE IS MORE EVIDENCE THAT MOISTURE WILL
INDEED GET WRAPPED UP INTO THE SYSTEM, MY CONFIDENCE FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAINS ON THE LOW END.
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 20/00Z.
MOSTLY SKC-FEW THRU THE VALID PD WITH OCNL THIN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS
AOA 20K FT AGL. SFC WINDS WLY/SWLY AT 11-19 KTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
25-30 KTS. HIGHEST WINDS EXPECTED SOUTH/EAST OF KTUS IN THE VICINITY
OF KDUG THRU 19/03Z. THEREAFTER, SFC WINDS PRIMARILY TERRAIN DRIVEN
AT LESS THAN 8 KTS UNTIL PICKING AND BECOMING WLY/SWLY AGAIN AFTER
19/17Z WITH SPEEDS OF 9-17 KTS AND OCNL GUSTS TO 22-26 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS (SUSTAINED WINDS
15-20 MPH; GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 MPH) COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY (AS LOW AS 13 TO 18 PERCENT) AND DRY FUELS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL RESULT IN NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF COCHISE COUNTY. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET AND RH
WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW AND
WEDNESDAY, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST (ESPECIALLY
FOR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF COCHISE COUNTY) AS BREEZY CONDITIONS
(WINDS AROUND 15 MPH; GUSTS 25-30 MPH) AND MINIMUM RH (BETWEEN 10 TO
15 PERCENT) CONTINUE THRU FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE (10-20%) FOR CLOUD BUILDUPS AND VIRGA
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND
TERRAIN OVER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON. STAY TUNED.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DVS
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