736
FXUS65 KTWC 190857
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
157 AM MST TUE MAY 19 2026
SYNOPSIS
A STORM SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH WILL BRING SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES
TODAY AND TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH MINOR HEAT RISK.
DISCUSSION
THIS MORNING'S WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEATHER
SYSTEM OVER UTAH WHERE IT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW. THE SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAYS, BUT ENOUGH TO RAISE ELEVATED TO BRIEF NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR COCHISE COUNTY.
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW A LOW PRESSURE
CIRCULATION OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA, SEPARATING ITSELF FROM THE
MAIN TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS LOW WILL
INJECT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA, LEADING TO HIGH
CLOUDS STARTING LATER TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
WITH MINOR HEATRISK FOR THE REGION. BY THE WEEKEND, THE
MOISTURE WILL WORK ITS WAY DOWN THE ATMOSPHERE, SITTING AROUND
700MB FOR THE EASTERN AREAS OF TUCSON. THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE MAKING ITS WAY DOWN AND
HOW FAR WEST IT WOULD BE. THE LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY.
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO CLOUD BUILD UPS, NON-
ZERO CHANCE FOR A DRY THUNDERSTORM, AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS FROM
ANY VIRGA. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL STAY NEAR NORMAL WITH
MINOR HEATRISK.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 20/12Z.
MOSTLY SKC THIS MORNING WITH HIGH CIRRUS. BY 19/18Z, SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AT OR AROUND 20K FEET AGL AND ANOTHER FEW-SCT LAYER AT
OR AROUND 15K FEET AGL THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SFC
WINDS THIS MORNING, AND AGAIN AFTER 20/03Z, WILL BE LESS THAN
12 KTS AND TERRAIN DRIVEN. BY 19/18Z, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT
12-20 KTS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH AND EAST OF KTUS, ESPECIALLY AT KDUG TERMINAL. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW, RESULTING IN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF
TUCSON WITH BRIEF NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS EXISTING IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF COCHISE COUNTY. BY THE END OF THE WEEK,
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 MPH WITH MIN RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES SITTING IN THE TEENS TO THE MID-20S. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY,
LEADING TO MAINLY VIRGA AND CLOUD BUILD UPS TO A NON-ZERO CHANCE
FOR A DRY THUNDERSTORM IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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