793
FXUS65 KTWC 192023
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
123 PM MST TUE MAY 19 2026
SYNOPSIS
A DRY WEATHER SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH WILL BRING
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY LESS
WIND THEREAFTER INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH MINOR
HEATRISK.
DISCUSSION
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WITH SOME THIN HIGH LEVEL CIRROFORM CLOUDS MOVING
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LATEST WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO SOUTHEAST CA
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER AZ. THIS SETUP IS RESULTING IN SOME
BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON
WHERE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE. THIS PATTERN WILL
REMAIN PERSISTENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED BREEZES, AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, A WEAK UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST AND THEN GRADUALLY SLIDE
EASTWARD INTO SONORA. THIS SYSTEM WON'T HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT FOR
US, BUT AFTERNOON BREEZES WILL TICK DOWN DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR A BIT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE CREEPING NORTH INTO
LOCALES SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON FOR A FEW BUILD-UPS SATURDAY. THE
LIKELIHOOD IS HIGHER FOR A MORE NOTABLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE PUSH BY
AROUND NEXT MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST AND BRING IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.
STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES OVER THE UPCOMING DAYS
BUT FOR NOW WE'RE DEPICTING A 10 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY FOR MUCH OF SE ARIZONA, THEN TRENDING TOWARDS
EASTERN AREAS TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 21/00Z. SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20K
FEET AGL AND ANOTHER FEW-SCT LAYER AT OR AROUND 15K FEET AGL THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. SFC WINDS SWLY AT 12-20 KTS WITH GUSTS 25-30
KTS THROUGH 20/03Z, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS SOUTH AND EAST OF KTUS,
ESPECIALLY AT KDUG TERMINAL. SFC WINDS DIMINISH AND BECOME SELY/SLY
TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BETWEEN 20/04Z AND 20/16Z, BEFORE BECOMING SWLY
AGAIN 10-18 KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KTS AFT 20/16Z THROUGH END
OF VALID PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
RESULTING IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR AREAS EAST AND
SOUTH OF TUCSON WITH BRIEF NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS EXISTING IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF COCHISE COUNTY. FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY,
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 MPH WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SITTING IN THE TEENS TO THE MID-20S. MID TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL APPROACH AS EARLY AS THIS WEEKEND SOUTH
AND EAST OF TUCSON, BUT THE MORE IMPACTFUL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY HOLD
OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES.
THERE IS A 10 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA, AND THESE CHANCES WILL TREND
TOWARDS THE NM BORDER TUESDAY,
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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