997
FXUS65 KTWC 202037
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
137 PM MST WED MAY 20 2026
SYNOPSIS
A DRY WEATHER SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH WILL BRING
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHTLY LESS WIND
THEREAFTER INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH MINOR HEATRISK. ANOTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION BY THE START OF THE
NEW WEEK, BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
LATEST IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES (HIGH CLOUDS) FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AS OUR AREA
RESIDES WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A BROAD TROUGH
AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM UTAH DOWN ALONG THE AZ/CA BORDER. THIS
PATTERN CONTINUES TO RESULT IN SOME BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON. MEANWHILE, CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE REMNANTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL SHEAR OUT THURSDAY
WITH ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM TAKING UP RESIDENCE NEAR NORTHERN BAJA
FRIDAY THEN SHIFTING ACROSS SONORA SATURDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN
JUST ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOR A FEW BUILD-UPS THIS WEEKEND,
MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON.
OTHERWISE, NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH JUST A
FEW BREEZES EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY.
ENSEMBLES ARE DEPICTING ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING FROM SOUTHERN CA INTO
AZ ON MONDAY. THIS WILL HAVE A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICS TO
WORK WITH GIVEN ITS STRENGTH AND COMING IN AT A NEGATIVE TILT. THE
BIG QUESTION IS JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL IT BE ABLE TO PULL NORTH
OUT AHEAD OF THAT TROUGH AXIS AND WHERE WILL IT LINE UP. LATEST
INDICATIONS ARE A PLUME OF PWAT'S IN THE 0.75" TO 1 INCH RANGE WILL
MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA MAINLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD MONDAY, AND THE
COMBINATION OF THIS MOISTURE AND INCREASED LIFT WITH THE TROUGH WILL
BE ENOUGH FOR A 10 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM TUCSON EASTWARD. WITH THIS TROUGH MOVING IN, BREEZES WILL START
TICKING A BIT HIGHER ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE, MORE NOTABLE OUTFLOW
WINDS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS PATTERN WITH QPF
REMAINING LOW.
BY TUESDAY, AS THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST, THE MOISTURE
WILL ALSO SHIFT EAST INTO NM. THE TRENDS IN THE PAST DAY HAVE BEEN A
BIT QUICKER TO PUSH THE MOISTURE EAST, BUT EVEN WITH THAT SAID,
STILL CAN'T RULE OUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 22/00Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20K FEET AGL AND ANOTHER FEW-SCT LAYER AT OR
AROUND 15K FEET AGL THU 21/03Z, WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH 21/15Z AND SKC CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. SFC WINDS
SWLY/WLY AT 10-18 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON,
THEN BECOMING MAINLY SELY/SLY LESS THAN 10 KTS AFTER 21/04Z THROUGH
21/18Z. AFT 21/18Z SWLY/WLY SFC WINDS RESUME AT 8-14 KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO AROUND 20-25 KTS, WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS AT KDUG/KOLS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING
IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF
TUCSON WITH BRIEF LOCALLY NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS EXISTING IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF COCHISE COUNTY. FOR THURSDAY, WINDS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 15 MPH IN SOUTHEAST COCHISE COUNTY, BUT OTHERWISE
THROUGH SUNDAY, WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 MPH WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SITTING IN THE TEENS TO THE MID-20S. MID TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL APPROACH AS EARLY AS THIS WEEKEND SOUTH
AND EAST OF TUCSON, BUT THE MORE IMPACTFUL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY HOLD
OFF TILL MONDAY AS ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. THERE IS A
10 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MAINLY
FROM TUCSON EASTWARD, WITH LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY IN
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY. BREEZES WILL TICK UP MONDAY AND
TUESDAY TO AROUND 15 MPH AS WELL.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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