519
FXUS65 KTWC 211923
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1223 PM MST THU MAY 21 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF NORMAL
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK, ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF TUCSON.
DISCUSSION
BAGGY TROUGHINESS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE WEEKEND. LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH/CENTRAL PLAINS AS
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A
TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. BY MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK, THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOP OUT A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL. OVERALL, LIGHT
WINDS, WITH SOME AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH.
LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST, AS THE RIDGE SETS UP TO OUR EAST AND
A TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A 10-30
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM TUCSON
EASTWARD LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND ALONG THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE
ON TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME, ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP APPEAR
TO BE 'DRY', WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND
LIGHTNING STRIKES, BUT LITTLE IF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARM 1-3 DEGREES ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. READINGS THEN LOWER BACK TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY.
ELEVATED WINDS ARE EXPECTED THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO OUR NORTH. BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
OF 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SANTA CRUZ,
COCHISE, GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK STAY AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SANTA CRUZ AND COCHISE COUNTIES AND
IN THE LOWER 90S IN THE GILA RIVER VALLEY OF GRAHAM COUNTY AND FROM
TUCSON WESTWARD.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 23/00Z.
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES/SKC CONDITIONS, WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 10K-13K
FT AGL EAST OF A KFHU TO KSAD LINE. SFC WIND SWLY/WLY AT 8-14 KTS
AND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS THRU 22/03Z AND THEN AGAIN AFT 22/18Z.
BETWEEN 22/03Z AND 22/18Z, SFC WIND 10 KTS OR LESS AND VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH A CHANCE (10
TO 30 PERCENT) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK MAINLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK. 20-FOOT
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH SOME
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. BREEZY CONDITIONS
RETURN THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF TUCSON. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30-35
MPH ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS
EASTERN SANTA CRUZ, COCHISE, GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES. MIN RH
VALUES WILL BE IN THE 7-14 PERCENT RANGE IN THE VALLEYS AND IN THE
14-20 PERCENT RANGE IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH NEXT WEEK, EXCEPT ON
MONDAY IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS, WHEN RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
ZELL
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