242
FXUS65 KTWC 220835
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
135 AM MST FRI MAY 22 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF NORMAL
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK, ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF TUCSON.
DISCUSSION
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL BE A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE
START OF THE WEEKEND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WEST OF THE BAJA COASTLINE, AND THIS WILL TRACK EASTWARD
OVER THE FEW DAYS. ALL MAKING THE PATTERN FAIRLY ZONAL, BUT IT
WILL INJECT SOME SUBTLE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA IN THE FORM OF
CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
BY SUNDAY, THERE WILL BE A CHANGE IN PATTERN WHERE IT WILL BE
COMING IN TWO PARTS. IN PART 1, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN. PRECIPITABLE WATER
CONTENT WILL RISE EARLY SUNDAY UP TO 0.65-0.7 INCHES, LEADING TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHER CHANCES, CURRENTLY SITTING AT
10-30 PERCENT, FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE NORTH
AND EAST OF TUCSON. LINGERING CHANCES WILL STICK AROUND FOR
AREAS NEAR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND TO THE NORTHEAST. FORECASTED
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE LITTLE TO NONE, LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES AT
THE MOST. AS A RESULT, THE MAIN ACTIVITY IS LEANING TO MORE
VIRGA AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS THREAT FOR THE HOLIDAY PERIOD.
PART 2 WILL BE COMING IMMEDIATELY AFTER PART 1 WITH A NORTHWEST
TROUGH SINKING INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND BECOMING A CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE CENTER. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN A BETTER AGREEMENT ON
THE EVOLUTION AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW. THIS WILL
BRING DRYER AIR INTO THE REGION AND BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEW WEEK. ENSEMBLE
MODELS ARE HINTING THE UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION INTO A
RIDGE DEVELOPING TO THE EAST AND A GENERAL TROUGHINESS TO THE
WEST BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 23/12Z.
SKC CONDITIONS THROUGH 22/17Z BECOMING FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT
10K-13K FT AGL. ANOTHER LAYER OF FEW-SCT AT 20-25K FT AGL AFTER
23/01Z, BUT STAYING NORTH AND EAST OF KTUS. SFC WINDS THIS
MORNING LESS THAN 10 KTS AND GENERALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN AND AGAIN
AFTER 23/03Z. BY 22/18Z, SFC WIND SWLY/WLY AT 8-14 KTS AND GUSTS
TO AROUND 20 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH A CHANCE (10 TO 30
PERCENT) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK MAINLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
FORECASTED TO BE LITTLE TO NONE DURING HOLIDAY PERIOD, AND THEREFORE
LEANING TOWARDS A DRY THUNDERSTORM THREAT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH SUNDAY,
WITH SOME AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. BREEZY
CONDITIONS RETURN THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF 15-20
MPH AND GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS EASTERN SANTA CRUZ, COCHISE, GRAHAM AND
GREENLEE COUNTIES. MIN RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE 7-14 PERCENT
RANGE IN THE VALLEYS AND IN THE 14-20 PERCENT RANGE IN THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH NEXT WEEK, EXCEPT ON MONDAY IN THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS, WHEN RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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