512
FXUS65 KTWC 222027
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
126 PM MST FRI MAY 22 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT
WEEK, PERHAPS LINGERING EARLY TUESDAY ALONG THE NM BORDER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF NORMAL THROUGH
NEXT WEEK, THEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK,
ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF TUCSON.
DISCUSSION
CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON FROM TUCSON WESTWARD WITH
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
TUCSON. TEMPERATURES REMAIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CURRENTLY FEATURES BROAD TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE
AREA AS A WEAK LOW TRAVERSES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA. VERY LITTLE
CHANGE IN OUR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW SHEARS OUT TO OUR SOUTH WITH OUR AREA UNDER WEAK
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AS DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES PREVAIL.
HEADING INTO SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY, ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT THE AREA AS IT MOVES FROM OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST SUNDAY INTO SE CA AND THEN NW ARIZONA ON MONDAY. SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THIS WILL WILL HELP PULL IN SOME MODEST MOISTURE (PWAT
0.6"-0.8") FROM THE SOUTH AS EARLY AS SUNDAY EVENING BUT ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS INCREASED
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS FROM THE NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH WILL BE JUST
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY (20 TO 60 PERCENT
CHANCE), THOUGH THIS WILL MAINLY BE FOCUSED EAST OF TUCSON AS THE
TIMING OF THE TROUGH SPED UP SLIGHTLY. GIVEN THIS TIMING AND THE
DYNAMICS FROM THE TROUGH, THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS IS IN GRAHAM
AND GREENLEE COUNTY. QPF VALUES WILL REMAIN LOW (MAINLY LESS THAN
0.10") WITH GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OUTSIDE
OF ANY STORMS, WITH A TIGHTER GRADIENT, WE'LL SEE SOME BREEZES
MONDAY AREA-WIDE WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25-30 MPH.
ANY LINGERING MOISTURE WILL GET PUSHED OUT OF OUR AREA BY TUESDAY
MORNING, WITH ANY SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION JUST ENDING ACROSS
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY MORNING, WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
SOME BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
AREA REMAINS UNDER WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WE ARE SEEING SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE ENSEMBLES BY AROUND NEXT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS
ANOTHER TROUGH FROM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST IN TERMS OF HOW
AMPLIFIED IT IS, THOUGH THAT DOESN'T LOOK TO PLAY A HUGE ROLE FOR US
AS THE TIGHTEST GRADIENTS LOOK TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARDS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 24/00Z.
SKC CONDITIONS FROM KTUS WEST WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 10K-13K FT AGL
AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH AND EAST
OF KTUS. ANOTHER LAYER OF FEW-SCT AT 20-25K FT AGL AFTER 23/01Z
THROUGH 23/12Z, BUT STAYING NORTH AND EAST OF KTUS. SFC WIND
SWLY/WLY AT 8-14 KTS AND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS, BECOMING GENERALLY
TERRAIN DRIVEN AT 10 KTS OR LESS 23/03Z THROUGH 23/19Z. AFT 22/19Z,
SFC WINDS BECOME SWLY AGAIN AROUND 6-12 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH A CHANCE (10
TO 30 PERCENT) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK MAINLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE FORECASTED TO BE LIGHT, LEANING TOWARDS TOWARDS A DRY
THUNDERSTORM THREAT MONDAY FOCUSED ON LOCALES NORTHEAST OF TUCSON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF NORMAL
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 MPH OR LESS
THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH SOME AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING GUSTS TO AROUND 25
MPH. BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK,
ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
OF 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS EASTERN SANTA CRUZ, COCHISE, GRAHAM
AND GREENLEE COUNTIES. MIN RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE 7-14 PERCENT
RANGE IN THE VALLEYS AND IN THE 14-20 PERCENT RANGE IN THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH NEXT WEEK, EXCEPT ON MONDAY IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS, WHEN
RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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