849
FXUS65 KTWC 060955
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
255 AM MST SAT JUN 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE THE WEEKEND AND THE COMING WORK WEEK. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY TODAY IN THE
GILA RIVER VALLEY AND SAFFORD.
DISCUSSION
ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF BREEZY WINDS IS EXPECTED FOR SOUTHEASTERN
ARIZONA, ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE GILA
VALLEY AND SAFFORD. SUSTAINED WINDS IN SAFFORD YESTERDAY RANGED
FROM 18 TO 25 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
AND SIMILAR WINDS ARE LIKELY TODAY. OTHERWISE IN OTHER LOCATIONS
10-15 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. FORECAST HIGHS TODAY SIT 1-3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE AREA.
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION OVER THE
COMING DAYS, THE WEATHER STORY WILL REMAIN SIMILAR WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON. AS TROUGHING DEEPENS OVER THE WEST
COAST, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE COMMON IN SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA
SUNDAY ONWARDS. THIS TROUGH WILL STAY WELL TO THE NORTH TO KEEP
THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME ENSEMBLE MODEL
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO TRY TO BRING IN MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
WHEN THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT, MAINLY NEXT WEEKEND. AT THIS MOMENT
THERE REMAINS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH MOISTURE QUALITY TO
INCLUDE MORE THAN A FEW PERIODS OF VERY LOW BUT NON- ZERO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 06/12Z.
MAINLY SKC WITH SOME CIRRUS AOA 20K FEET MOVING IN LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST 10-15 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KTS FROM KTUS-KOLS EASTWARD AFTER 06/18Z,
DIMINISHING AFTER 07/03Z. STRONGER WINDS AT KSAD WITH 17-20 KT
WINDS AND GUSTS TO 30 KTS. WINDS WEST OF KTUS-KOLS TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY FROM A TUCSON-NOGALES
LINE EASTWARD. WINDS WILL BECOME 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH STRONGER WINDS THROUGH THE GILA RIVER
VALLEY OF 18-24 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE 8-14 PERCENT ACROSS DESERT LOCATIONS,
WHICH WILL BRING PERIODS OF LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN THE GILA WITH THE STRONGER WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WEST OF TUCSON-NOGALES WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. SUNDAY
ONWARDS WILL SEE SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 12-18 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30
MPH ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA EACH AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENTLY 8-15 PERCENT
ACROSS DESERT LOCATIONS AND 12-18 PERCENT IN THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...EDWARDS
AVIATION...EDWARDS
FIRE WEATHER...EDWARDS
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