641
FXUS65 KTWC 072125
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
225 PM MST SUN JUN 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL TODAY
AND MONDAY, WARMING 4-8 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LONGWAVE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DOWN TO THE WEST
COAST OF BAJA. TO THE EAST AN OMEGA BLOCK IS IN PLACE OVER THE
MIDWEST WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH EXTENDING FROM
THE WEST ATLANTIC INTO TEXAS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH HAS BROUGHT A SMALL AMOUNT OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE TO
AREAS EAST OF TUCSON INTO NEW MEXICO. THERE ARE SOME CUMULUS
CLOUDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTY
BECAUSE OF THIS. EARLIER RUNS OF THE HRRR AND A COUPLE HREF
MEMBERS SHOWED A COUPLE STORMS ALONG THE AZ/NM, BUT HAVE BACKED
OFF IN LATER RUNS. ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE
EAST OF THE CWA IN NEW MEXICO. MONDAY WILL SEE A SIMILAR SETUP.
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH STAYS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY SLOWLY
FLATTENING OUT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS
WESTWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO DAILY BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS THROUGH
THURSDAY. TODAY AND MONDAY THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE WEST OF
TUCSON AND IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS, THEN TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN GRAHAM COUNTY. RIGHT NOW WINDS
AREN'T STRONG ENOUGH TO MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA, BUT WITH RH 8-15
PERCENT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE ELEVATED EACH DAY.
LATER IN THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND THE RIDGE CONTINUES ITS
WESTWARD EXPANSION AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER TEXAS OR NORTHERN
MEXICO, WHICH WILL INCREASE HEIGHTS OVER ARIZONA. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A WARMUP STARTING DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL TODAY AND MONDAY WARMING TO
4-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. RIGHT NOW
HEATRISK IS MODERATE OVER MOST OF THE CWA WITH SMALL AREAS OF
MAJOR IN THE GILA RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LAST PART OF THE WORK
WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME ENSEMBLES SHOW PWAT VALUES STEADILY
INCREASING STARTING WEDNESDAY WITH MEAN PWAT VALUES AROUND AN
INCH BY THE WEEKEND, BUT STILL A LARGE SPREAD AROUND THE MEAN.
NBM INTRODUCES 15-25 PERCENT POPS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY EAST OF
TUCSON, BUT RAIN CHANCES COULD ARRIVE EARLIER DEPENDING ON HOW
THE MOISTURE PLAYS OUT.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 08/12Z.
SCT-BKN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS AREA-WIDE WITH FEW-SCT CUMULUS
10K-14K FT AGL EAST OF TUCSON THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. SKIES
BRIEFLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH SCT CUMULUS DEVELOPING AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS 15-22 KTS
THROUGH 08/03Z, BECOMING LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN TONIGHT.
WINDS INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS 15-22
KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
WINDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK
WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY 12-18 MPH EACH AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
CONSISTENTLY 8-15 PERCENT ACROSS DESERT LOCATIONS AND 12-18
PERCENT IN THE MOUNTAINS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
HARDIN
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