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FXUS65 KTWC 080950
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
250 AM MST MON JUN 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND TODAY, WARMING 4 TO 8
DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BREEZY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE MAY START TO
BRING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ELONGATED TROUGING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID-WEEK, WHILE A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST FROM THE EAST THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK. WHILE THE STRONGEST CIRCULATION FROM THE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN TO THE NORTH, IT WILL BRING BREEZINESS TO SOUTHEASTERN
ARIZONA EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. WHERE WINDS
PICK UP A BIT FURTHER, FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE ELEVATED,
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN GRAHAM COUNTY WHERE
WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WILL BE LIKELY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTWARD EXPANSION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WILL LIKELY BRING A WARM-UP TO SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA WITH
FORECAST HIGHS RISING TO 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FROM TUESDAY
ONWARD. PAST THURSDAY HOWEVER THERE IS SOME MODEST DISAGREEMENT
IN GUIDANCE REGARDING HIGH TEMPERATURES DUE TO A PROGRESSIVE
INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AS MEAN ATMOSPHERIC FLOW TAKES
A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. RECENT MODEL TRENDS BRING AN IMPRESSIVE
RISE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA,
POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 150-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
THE OVERALL BLEND OF MODELS STRUGGLES TO INITIALLY PRODUCE A
PRECIPITATION SIGNAL WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCES (10-25 PERCENT)
BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND, THOUGH THERE
WILL DEFINITELY STILL BE ROOM FOR THE FORECAST TO SHIFT IN THE
COMING DAYS AS THE MOISTURE POTENTIAL EVOLVES.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 09/12Z.
LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS AFTER 08/17Z. FEW-
SCT CEILINGS MAINLY ABOVE 15K FEET WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NEAR AND EAST OF A KTUS-KOLS
LINE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
WINDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY (BECOMING WEST/NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY) 12-18 MPH
EACH AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENTLY 8-15 PERCENT
ACROSS DESERT LOCATIONS AND 12-18 PERCENT IN THE MOUNTAINS, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING RELATIVE HUMIDITY FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE VALLEYS OF
GRAHAM COUNTY WHERE WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT STRONGER.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...EDWARDS
AVIATION...EDWARDS
FIRE WEATHER...EDWARDS
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