851
FXUS65 KTWC 092052
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
152 PM MST TUE JUN 9 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 1 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
EACH AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE MAY START TO BRING SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING THURSDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
RIDGING, CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
U.S., HAS BEGUN TO NUDGE INTO THE REGION WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS TROUGHING STAYS TO THE NORTH WITH A WEAK
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE WEST COAST OF BAJA AND THE RIDGE BECOMING
CENTERED OVER TEXAS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY EACH AFTERNOON
THANKS TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH, LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW. AT THE SAME TIME THE
PROXIMITY OF THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS 1-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND. RIGHT
NOW THE WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY AND SATURDAY. TUCSON
WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO SEE THE FIRST 105 OF THE YEAR TOMORROW
WITH NBM PROBABILITIES AROUND 50 PERCENT.
THE PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE AND WEAK CUT OFF LOW PUTS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA UNDER SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE
TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SUBTROPICS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY WITH
ENSEMBLE MEAN PWAT VALUES 1.0"-1.2" BY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
INITIALLY THE MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN PIMA
COUNTY AND THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION THURSDAY, THEN
SPREAD OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND WEST OF
TUCSON. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A COUPLE NSSL MEDIUM-RANGE CAMS
WHICH SHOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THESE AREAS. THEREAFTER EXPECT
STORM CHANCES SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON WITH THE BEST CHANCES
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE
IN THE MOISTURE PUSH, BUT UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY WHERE STORMS
WILL FORM AND HOW STRONG THEY WILL BE. WITH THE DRY LOWER LEVELS
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL DEFINITELY BE A THREAT. EARLY NEXT
WEEK ENSEMBLES SHOW A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES, WHICH
WILL SWITCH OUR MID-LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND BEGIN TO SCOUR
OUT SOME OF THE MOISTURE.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 11/00Z.
SCT-BKN CEILINGS 8K-12K FEET MAINLY IN COCHISE COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SKC CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. SKIES BECOME CLEAR
EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY 10-15
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 22 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT. WINDS INCREASE
AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS TO TODAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
WINDS TODAY WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY 12-18 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH, WITH A SHIFT TO THE WEST TOMORROW AND
NORTHWEST THURSDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY
8-14 PERCENT WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INTRODUCE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LIGHTNING
AS EARLY AS THURSDAY, THOUGH WITH BETTER CHANCES (GENERALLY
15-35 PERCENT) FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
HARDIN
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