301
FXUS65 KTWC 101031
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
331 AM MST WED JUN 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA WITH TUCSON POTENTIALLY REACHING
105 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR TODAY. INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING SOUTH
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO AND TEXAS. A WEAK CUTOFF LOW SITS OFF THE
WESTERN BAJA COAST WHICH IS COMBINING WITH THE NEARBY RIDGE TO
DRAW MOISTURE NORTH THROUGH MEXICO TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. AHEAD OF THIS MOISTURE SURGE, THE SUBSEQUENT HEIGHT
RISES WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR TUCSON TO HIT 105 FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR
(55 PERCENT CHANCE FROM THE NBM). TROUGHING TO THE NORTH WILL
KEEP WINDS BREEZY AND OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST TODAY,
ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE GRAHAM COUNTY GILA AND ARAVAIPA VALLEYS
WHERE WINDS OF 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH ARE
FORECAST.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH MID-LEVEL FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN
ARIZONA. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FAVORS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO
RISE TO OVER AN INCH THROUGH FRIDAY, FURTHER INCREASING INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS MOISTURE PUSH WILL START TO BRING IN SOME SLIGHT
(UNDER 20 PERCENT) SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FRIDAY, WITH A
NON-ZERO BUT EVEN LOWER POTENTIAL THURSDAY. A STRONGER
INSTABILITY SIGNAL ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND WHICH LINES UP WITH THE
MODESTLY HIGHER NBM PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES, THOUGH THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME DETAILS TO WORK OUT DEPENDING ON DAY TO DAY
ACTIVITY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME A BIT STRONGER AND MORE ACTIVE
THIS WEEKEND AS WELL, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR GREATER CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS IMPACTS.
THE OUTLOOK NEXT WEEK IS LESS CLEAR AS MORE SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES EXIST IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE MOISTURE. 00Z ECMWF
MEMBERS HAVE A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE
ON MONDAY WHILE GFS MEMBERS TRY TO SCOUR THIS MOISTURE OUT
QUICKER. ADDITIONALLY IF SATURDAY/SUNDAY ARE MORE ACTIVE DAYS,
THIS MAY ALSO NEGATIVELY IMPACT MONDAY'S PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
FOR NOW 10-30 PERCENT CHANCES REMAIN ON MONDAY HOWEVER THIS IS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 11/12Z.
SKC THROUGH 10/18Z THEN FEW CLOUDS AT 10K FEET. SURFACE WINDS
INCREASE AND BECOME WEST/NORTHWEST 8-14 KTS AFTER 10/18Z WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KTS. STRONGER 15-20 KT NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH KSAD WITH GUST UP TO 28 KTS. WINDS THEN DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY AND THURSDAY FROM THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE EVENING. WIND SPEEDS OF 12-18 MPH AND GUSTS OF 25
MPH THROUGH MOST OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA, WITH WINDS OF 15-20
MPH AND GUSTS TO 30 MPH THROUGH THE GRAHAM COUNTY GILA AND
ARAVAIPA VALLEYS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES 8-14 PERCENT TODAY
AND 14-19 PERCENT IN THE MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE BEGINS TO
PROGRESSIVELY MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INTRODUCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LIGHTNING AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY, THOUGH WITH BETTER CHANCES (GENERALLY 15-35 PERCENT)
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...EDWARDS
AVIATION...EDWARDS
FIRE WEATHER...EDWARDS
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