889
FXUS65 KTWC 111036
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
336 AM MST THU JUN 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY AFTERNOONS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL
INTO NEXT WEEK. INCREASING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
COMING SEVERAL DAYS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVING BY THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS WILL SHIFT WEST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, CAUSING A MOISTURE PUSH FROM THE SOUTH
INTO SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING
ONE INCH BEGIN TO NUDGE IN FROM THE SOUTH TODAY AND THEN
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A RISE IN SURFACE DEW
POINTS WILL ALSO FOLLOW THIS MOISTURE PUSH WITH UPPER 40S TO MID
50S DEW POINTS BECOMING COMMON BY SUNDAY. THIS SLOWER NORTHWARD
DRAW OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD HOLD OFF INITIAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE MOST PART UNTIL THE WEEKEND,
THOUGH VIRGA AND A VERY LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
MAY ARRIVE WITH THIS MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS TODAY AND
FRIDAY. MODELED INSTABILITY BECOMES MORE NOTABLE FOR CONVECTIVE
CHANCES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY EVEN THOUGH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS MAINLY
KEEP PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS
SATURDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS TREND WITH CHANCES
MAINLY SOUTH SATURDAY AND 15-40 PERCENT CHANCES MORE WIDESPREAD
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL TO MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH THIS
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL, WITH ROOM FOR THINGS TO SHIFT AS MOISTURE
MAKES ITS WAY FURTHER NORTH. THUNDERSTORMS WITH IMPACTFUL WIND
GUSTS AND BLOWING DUST POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT
IF INSTABILITY IS FULLY REALIZED.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE ON MONDAY AS MOISTURE
LINGERS, WITH A FURTHER REDUCTION IN CHANCES ON TUESDAY AS MID-
LEVEL FLOW TURNS WESTERLY AND DRIER. THE FORECAST DOESN'T FULLY
DRY OUT HOWEVER AS LONG RANGE GUIDANCE KEEPS AT LEAST SOME
MOISTURE AROUND.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE APPROACHING,
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES MAY BE IMPACTED BY CLOUD COVER WITH ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 12/12Z.
INCREASING CLOUD COVER TODAY WITH CEILINGS SCT-BKN AT 20K FEET
AND FEW- SCT 12K FEET THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND TURN WEST/NORTHWEST AFTER 11/17Z THROUGH THIS
EVENING BECOMING 14-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 28 KTS AT KSAD AND
8-13 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS ELSEWHERE. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
WINDS WILL REMAIN WEST/NORTHWEST EACH DAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS TO 22 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH STRONGER SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF GRAHAM COUNTY. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE RISE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY DOWN TO 8-14
PERCENT TODAY AND 14-20 PERCENT IN THE MOUNTAINS, PROGRESSIVELY
INCREASING TO 15-25 PERCENT IN LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 25-35
PERCENT IN THE MOUNTAINS BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
AND LIGHTNING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY, WITH BETTER CHANCES (15-40
PERCENT) THIS WEEKEND.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
DISCUSSION...EDWARDS
AVIATION...EDWARDS
FIRE WEATHER...EDWARDS
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK, X, YOUTUBE, AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page