964
FXUS65 KTWC 112012
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
112 PM MST THU JUN 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY AFTERNOONS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO JUST
ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK. INCREASING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE COMING SEVERAL DAYS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING BY THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
THE GREEK PHILOSOPHER PLATO ONCE SAID (OR AT LEAST
IT IS ATTRIBUTED TO HIM SAYING), "THE BEGINNING IS THE MOST
IMPORTANT PART OF THE WORK". THAT IS WHERE WE FIND OURSELVES AS
WE BEGIN TO SEE THE INGREDIENTS OF THE MONSOON TAKE ROOT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. ALTHOUGH THE ACTUAL SEASON DOESN'T START
UNTIL MONDAY JUNE 15TH, THE UPPER PATTERN THIS AFTERNOON IS
DEFINED BY A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE BAJA PENINSULA
AND A SUBTROPICAL HIGH ESTABLISHING ITSELF ACROSS TEXAS AND NRN
MEXICO. THE RESULTING SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES
INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS IS UNDERWAY, WITH THE LATEST GOES
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATING PWATS BETWEEN 1.00-1.25
INCHES SPILLING INTO THE LOWER DESERTS OF CENTRAL/WESTERN PIMA
AND YUMA COUNTIES. STRONG CONTRAST OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS WESTERN PIMA
COUNTY TO THE MID 30S IN THE TUCSON METRO AREA AND NEAR 40 NEAR
NOGALES IN SANTA CRUZ COUNTY.
DESPITE THE MOISTURE, THERE IS A GENERAL LACK OF UPPER FORCING
AROUND TODAY TO REALLY AID THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT. I WOULD
EXPECT TO SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE (10 PERCENT) OF A WEAK STORMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE 300 MB DEFORMATION AXIS
WHICH EXTENDS FROM NE SONORA MEXICO INTO SW AZ. JUST A LITTLE
TOO DRY FOR ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL, BUT IN THOSE AREAS JUST
OUTSIDE OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE (SANTA CRUZ COUNTY INTO THE ERN
PORTIONS OF THE TOHONO O'ODHAM NATION) WE CAN SEE SOME OF THE
WEAK DOWNDRAFTS RESULT IN SOME GUSTY OUTFLOWS TO 30-35 MPH AND
LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS JUMPING INTO THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S SUNDAY. DURING THIS PERIOD, WE WILL SEE
WEAK SHORTWAVES SHEAR OFF OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND
TRACK ACROSS THE CWA BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH STRONGER
UPPER FORCING/LIFT MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THE LARGER-SCALE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CLIPS THE
EASTERN PORTIONS ARIZONA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE OVERALL CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS (20-40 PERCENT) INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME OF
THESE STORMS CAN GET FRISKY, WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS THE MAIN
CONCERN.
OTHERWISE, AS THE PREVIOUS AFD MENTIONED, THE FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES REMAIN JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE APPROACHING, HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES MAY BE IMPACTED BY CLOUD COVER WITH ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 13/00Z. INCREASING CLOUD COVER TODAY
WITH FEW-SCT 10-14K FEET AGL DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND SCT-
BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS AT 20K FEET AGL. SCT-BKN 9-12K FEET CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK MAINLY DRY STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON FROM SANTA CRUZ COUNTY INTO CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY MAY
PRODUCE LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS/5SM BLDU. OTHERWISE,
SURFACE WINDS WEST/NORTHWEST 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 22 KTS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN LESS
THAT 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. STRONGER WINDS 15-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30
KTS AT KSAD BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
WINDS WILL REMAIN WEST/NORTHWEST EACH DAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS TO 22 MPH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH STRONGER SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH AND
GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN LOWER ELEVATIONS OF GRAHAM COUNTY. MOISTURE
WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY 8-14 PERCENT TODAY AND 14-20 PERCENT IN THE MOUNTAINS,
PROGRESSIVELY INCREASING TO 15-25 PERCENT IN LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND 25-35 PERCENT IN THE MOUNTAINS BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING
BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS AND LIGHTNING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY, WITH BETTER CHANCES
(15-40 PERCENT) THIS WEEKEND.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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