578
FXUS65 KTWC 280925
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
225 AM MST SUN JUN 28 2026
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TODAY WHICH
WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A DRY
FORECAST IS IN PLACE FOR THIS WEEK ALONG WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
DRY WEEK AHEAD AS THE CALENDAR TURNS FROM JUNE
TO JULY WITH THE HOPES OF A FAVORABLE MONSOON FLOW PATTERN
DEVELOPING AFTER THE 4TH.
IN THE SHORT TERM, THE CONUS WILL BE SPLIT WITH TROFINESS IN THE
WEST AND RIDGING TO THE EAST. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
AROUND AGAIN TODAY ALONG WITH ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA TOMORROW. WESTERN CONUS TROFINESS WILL BE
WEAKENING TUE TO THU WHICH WILL ALLOW SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO
BUILD TO OUR SOUTH AND EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE 4TH OF
JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MAY SEE SOME MOISTURE SEEP IN AFTER THU,
THAT MAY LEAD TO AFTERNOON BUILD-UPS FRI-SAT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEK WILL MOSTLY BE AROUND NORMAL. CAN'T COMPLAIN AS THIS
WILL BE THE FIRST JUNE SINCE 2020 THAT TUCSON DIDN'T RECORD A
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 110S.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 29/12Z.
A FEW CLOUDS AOA 12K FT AGL THRU VALID PD, OTRW SKC. SFC WINDS
MOSTLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 28/16Z, THEN BCMG W-SW 15-25 KTS
WITH GUSTS 30-35 KTS, SLOWLY DIMINISHING AFTER 29/03Z. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK
WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS IN THE 10-20 PERCENT
RANGE WITH THE MORE ELEVATED RHS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE LIKELY TODAY. EXPECT 20-FOOT
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH
THROUGH THIS EVENING. OUTSIDE OF THE RED FLAG THAT IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL THIS EVENING, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY AS WELL, ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON WEST. WINDS WILL BE
LOWER THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE MAY BEGIN TO CREEP BACK
INTO THE SOUTH LATE NEXT WEEK HOWEVER CURRENT FORECAST MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES STAY MAINLY BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR NOW.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ150>154.
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