921
FXUS65 KTWC 290912
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
212 AM MST MON JUN 29 2026
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TODAY AND TOMORROW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
A DRY FORECAST IS IN PLACE FOR THIS WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND AROUND NORMAL TO START THE WEEK THEN WARMING UP TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
THE CONUS REMAINS SPLIT WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF
ACROSS THE WEST AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE EAST. THE
TROF IN THE WEST WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW
RESULTING IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HIGHS TODAY AND
TOMORROW WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS WE CLOSE OUT
JUNE.
THE TROF IN THE WEST WILL WEAKEN MID-WEAK WITH SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH BUILDING SOUTH OF US AND EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HIGHS START OF JULY RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL THEN WARM UP TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND. MOISTURE, MAINLY MID-LEVEL, STARTS TO CREEP BACK INTO
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK WHICH MAY LEAD TO AFTERNOON CLOUD
BUILD-UPS FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
POTENTIAL FOR A FAVORABLE MONSOON FLOW PATTERN TO SET UP
SOMETIME NEXT WEEK, LIKELY AFTER THE 7TH, WITH THE 8-14 DAY
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK (JULY 6-12) SHOWING A SLIGHT LEAN FOR
ABOVE NORMAL (33%-37% CHANCE).
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 30/12Z.
SKC THRU MUCH OF VALID PD. THE EXCEPTION IS FEW CLOUDS AOA 12K
FT AGL EAST OF KTUS BTWN 29/20Z AND 30/04Z. SFC WINDS TERRAIN
DRIVEN LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 29/16Z, THEN W-SW 12-22 KTS WITH
OCNL GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS, SLOWLY DIMINISHING AFTER 30/03Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EXPECT 20-FOOT WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
12-22 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH BOTH AFTERNOONS. DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS IN THE 10-20 PERCENT RANGE WITH THE MORE ELEVATED RHS
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WINDS WILL BE LOWER THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE MAY BEGIN TO CREEP BACK INTO THE SOUTH
LATE IN THE WEEK HOWEVER CURRENT FORECAST MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES STAY MAINLY BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR NOW.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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