749
FXUS65 KTWC 292124
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
224 PM MST MON JUN 29 2026
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TODAY AND TOMORROW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
A DRY FORECAST IS IN PLACE FOR THIS WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND AROUND NORMAL TO START THE WEEK THEN WARMING UP TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS REMAINS
SPLIT WITH A UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE WEST AND A STRONG UPPER HIGH
OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THE TROF IN THE WEST WILL KEEP BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS IN PLAY THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH LOCALIZED NEAR CRITICAL
CONDITIONS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE TUCSON METRO STRETCHING FROM AVRA
VALLEY TO ARIVACA. OTHERWISE, HIGHS TODAY WILL TOP OUT NEAR NORMAL.
TOMORROW, WE WILL COOL DOWN BY A DEGREE OR SO AREAWIDE WITH NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT JUNE.
THE TROF IN THE WEST WILL WEAKEN MID-WEEK WITH THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
BUILDING SOUTH OF US AND EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE 4TH OF
JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF JULY ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL BEFORE WARMING SHARPLY
TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MOISTURE, MAINLY MID-LEVEL, STARTS TO CREEP BACK INTO THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK WHICH MAY LEAD TO AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILD-UPS FRIDAY
INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
POTENTIAL FOR A FAVORABLE MONSOON FLOW PATTERN THAT WOULD SUPPORT
THE RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO SET UP SOMETIME NEXT WEEK,
LIKELY AFTER THE 7TH, WITH THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK (JULY
6-12) SHOWING A SLIGHT LEAN FOR ABOVE NORMAL (33%-37% CHANCE).
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 01/00Z.
SKC THRU MUCH OF VALID PD. THE EXCEPTION IS FEW CLOUDS AOA 12K
FT AGL EAST OF KTUS THRU 30/04Z. SFC WINDS W-SW 12-22 KTS WITH
OCNL GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS, GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AFTER 30/03Z.
TOMORROW, WINDS PICK UP AGAIN AFTER 30/17Z WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS
AND GUSTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON, TOMORROW, AND WEDNESDAY WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EXPECT 20-FOOT WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST 12-22 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH EACH AFTERNOON. DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS IN THE 10-20 PERCENT RANGE WITH THE MORE ELEVATED
RHS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WINDS WILL BE LOWER THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE MAY BEGIN TO CREEP BACK INTO THE SOUTH LATE
IN THE WEEK HOWEVER CURRENT FORECAST MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
STAY MAINLY BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR NOW.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK, X, YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page