533
FXUS65 KTWC 301007
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
307 AM MST TUE JUN 30 2026
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TODAY AND TOMORROW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
A DRY FORECAST IS IN PLACE FOR THIS WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND AROUND NORMAL TODAY THEN WARM UP TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY AND TOMORROW AS UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
KEEPS BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.
LESS GRADIENT TYPE WINDS AFTER WEDNESDAY INTO THE 4TH OF JULY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS AND EXPANDS ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE EAST AND SOUTH. HIGHS TODAY, THE LAST DAY OF
JUNE, WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THEN WILL SLOWLY WARM UP AS
THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CREEPS BACK INTO THE EASTERN AREAS LATE IN
THE WEEKEND FOR LOW END CHANCE (10%-30%) OF STORMS ON MONDAY.
THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR TUE JUL 7 TO MON JUL 13
IS LEANING ABOVE NORMAL (34% NORTH TO 42% SOUTH) WITH THE UPPER
HIGH POTENTIALLY NEAR THE 4-CORNERS, WHICH BRINGS A FAVORABLE
MONSOON FLOW PATTERN. BOTH THE GFS/ECWMF DETERMINISTIC MODELS
ARE SHOWING AN INVERTED TROF MOVING WEST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STAY TUNED.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 01/12Z.
SKC TO FEW CLOUDS AOA 12K FT AGL THRU MUCH OF VALID PD. SFC WINDS
TERRAIN DRIVEN LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 30/16Z, THEN W-SW 12-22 KTS
WITH OCNL GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS, SLOWLY DIMINISHING AFTER 01/03Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY. EXPECT 20-FOOT WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST 12-22 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH EACH AFTERNOON. DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS IN THE 10-20 PERCENT RANGE WITH THE
MORE ELEVATED RHS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WINDS WILL BE
LOWER THURSDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE MAY BEGIN TO CREEP
BACK INTO THE SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK HOWEVER CURRENT FORECAST
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES STAY MAINLY BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR
NOW.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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