137
FXUS65 KTWC 302107
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
207 PM MST TUE JUN 30 2026
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TODAY AND TOMORROW
WHICH WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A DRY
FORECAST IS IN PLACE FOR THIS WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AROUND AROUND NORMAL TODAY THEN WARM UP TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER CONUS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN HALF U.S. AND TROUGHING OVER
THE WEST. THE TROUGHING HAS LED TO BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS WHICH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW
WILL ALSO BE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BY THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND WESTWARD AS THE TROUGH
RETREATS NORTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE TO
AROUND NORMAL THROUGH JULY 4 WITH WINDS SUBSIDING AS WELL EXCEPT
FOR NORMAL AFTERNOON GUSTINESS.
BY SUNDAY MODELS SHOW MID-LEVEL WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. IT'S POSSIBLE BY MID NEXT WEEK THE
RIDGE SETS UP AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL ALSO
INCREASE TEMPERATURES TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. STILL A
WAYS OFF BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF THE TYPICAL MONSOON
PATTERN SETTING UP. PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL TO JUST
ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE
(20-40 PERCENT) FOR STORMS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE
AZ/NM BORDER MONDAY WITH CHANCES EXPANDING WEST TUESDAY.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 02/00Z.
FEW-SCT CLOUDS NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON, SKC AT
OTHER TIMES. SFC WINDS W-SW 12-20 KTS WITH OCNL GUSTS UP TO 30
KTS, SLOWLY DIMINISHING AFTER 01/03Z. WINDS TERRAIN DRIVEN LESS
THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT BECOMING W-SW AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST 12-20 MPH
AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH EACH AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS
IN THE 10-20 PERCENT TODAY BECOMING 5-12 PERCENT WEDNESDAY-
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LOWER THURSDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
MOISTURE MAY BEGIN TO CREEP BACK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEING RH VALUES UP AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER MONDAY.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
HARDIN
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