633
FXUS65 KTWC 011547
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
847 AM MST WED JUL 1 2026
UPDATE
MAIN STORY WILL BE THE BREEZY WINDS AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TODAY. THIS MORNING'S HREF AND REFS SHOW THE
SOUTHWEST WINDS PICKING UP BY BY 9AM. PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS
GREATER THAN 25 MPH IS 30-60% AND GREATER THAN 30 MPH IS 10-25%,
MAINLY FOCUSING ON SANTA CRUZ COUNTY TO THE HUACHUCA MOUNTAINS.
WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS AND BREEZES.
OTHERWISE, THE MAIN FORECAST PACKAGE IS ON TRACK. SEE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION.
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TODAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A DRY FORECAST IS
IN PLACE FOR THIS WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND AROUND
NORMAL TODAY THEN WARM UP TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ONE MORE DAY OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
AS UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. HIGHS
TODAY, THE FIRST DAY OF JULY, WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED
YESTERDAY, THE LAST DAY OF JUNE.
THURSDAY: NOT AS BREEZY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES.
FRIDAY: AN UPPER HIGH DEVELOPS OVER NM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO
PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTH FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS.
4TH OF JULY: ON AMERICA'S 250TH BIRTHDAY, MOISTURE PUSH
CONTINUES WITH PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 0.70" NE TO 1" WEST WITH THE
UPPER HIGH OVER NM. ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF CUMULUS CLOUDS. HIGHS
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SUNDAY: NOT MUCH CHANGE IN PWATS WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: PWATS WILL BE AROUND NORMAL TO JUST ABOVE
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE (10-40
PERCENT) FOR STORMS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE AZ/NM
BORDER MONDAY WITH CHANCES EXPANDING WEST ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 02/12Z.
SKC THRU 02/03Z THEN INCRG CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL THRU END OF
THE VALID PD. SFC WINDS TERRAIN DRIVEN LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU
01/17Z THEN AGAIN AFTER 02/04Z. AT OTHER HOURS, W-SW 10-18 KTS
WITH OCNL GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. 20-FOOT
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST 12-20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH THIS AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS 5 TO 12 PERCENT TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LOWER THURSDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
MOISTURE MAY BEGIN TO CREEP BACK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEING RH VALUES UP AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER MONDAY.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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