660
FXUS65 KTWC 021103
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
403 AM MST THU JUL 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TODAY WHICH WILL RESULT
IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A DRY FORECAST IS IN PLACE FOR
THIS WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND AROUND NORMAL TODAY THEN
WARM UP TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
TODAY'S SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS AND TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY. IT DEFINITELY WON'T FEEL QUITE AS WINDY AS THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS WHEN YOUR TRASH CAN MAY HAVE TIPPED OVER, BUT STILL
BREEZY ENOUGH TO BE NOTICEABLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TOPPING
OUT IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL START TO
STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR JUST A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY, TOPPING OUT IN THE
MID/UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. WHILE FORECAST HIGHS THROUGH JULY 4TH ARE
FORECAST TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS RATHER THAN EXCEPTIONALLY
HOT LIKE IN YEARS PAST, STILL EXPECT IT TO BE WARM ENOUGH OUTDOORS
TO POSE A RISK FOR ANYBODY WHO MAY BE MORE SENSITIVE TO THE HEAT.
DIVING A LITTLE BIT DEEPER INTO THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WE START TO SEE INCREASING MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL RISE INTO THE 0.5 TO 0.9
INCH RANGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FRIDAY AND INTO THE 0.7 TO 1.2
INCH RANGE ON SATURDAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO ORGANIZE
OVER NEW MEXICO AND MEANDER INTO THE FOUR CORNERS ADVECTING PLENTY
OF MOISTURE FROM MID-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION. MOST, IF
NOT ALL, OF THE MOISTURE UPTICK WILL BE IN THE MID-LEVELS RESULTING
IN INCREASING CUMULUS CLOUDS EACH AFTERNOON.
THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT CLOUD BUILDUPS AND INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR MONSOONAL STORMS AGAIN MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH CHANCES (10-40%). WE WILL ALSO SEE TEMPERATURES CREEPING
UP TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR
HEATRISK LEVELS EXPECTED BY BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 03/12Z.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH FEW-SCT CUMULUS FIELD AT 10-12K FEET AGL
STAYING MAINLY SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF KDUG THIS AFTERNOON. THEN
INCREASING FEW-SCT AT OR AROUND 25K FEET AGL AFTER 03/00Z.
SOUTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS AT 8-12 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER 03/03Z, WINDS BECOME LESS THAN 12 KTS AND
TERRAIN DRIVEN. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST 12-20 MPH WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS 5 TO 12
PERCENT TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LOWER FRIDAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND. MOISTURE MAY BEGIN TO CREEP BACK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEING RH VALUES UP AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER MONDAY.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DVS
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