535
FXUS65 KTWC 022143
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
243 PM MST THU JUL 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN
MOISTURE MOVES IN EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO STORM CHANCES
MONDAY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 1-3
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH JULY 4 THEN 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE SINCE
THE WEEKEND IS BEGINNING TO FINALLY BREAK DOWN WITH TROUGHING
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. FLATTENING OUT AND MOVING NORTH. HIGH
PRESSURE IS STILL IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN U.S., BUT IS
EXPANDING WESTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO AND ARIZONA. THE HIGH WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH AND WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS THIS HAPPENS MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AND ADVECT
MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLY SOME
VIRGA SHOWERS OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND FAR WESTERN PIMA
COUNTY SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE AND BE 1-3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY.
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE HIGH ALMOST DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD TEMPERATURES WARM FURTHER TO 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGH ALSO ALLOWS FOR MORE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO MOVE IN THANKS TO SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL
WINDS. BY MONDAY PWAT VALUES WILL BE A LITTLE OVER AN INCH
INCREASING TO 1.1"-1.3" BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THESE VALUES
ARE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BECAUSE OF THIS EXPECT
STORM CHANCES BEGINNING MONDAY MAINLY ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER AND
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK
STORM CHANCES WILL SLOWLY EXPAND WESTWARD WITH TUCSON ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF STORM CHANCES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BEST
CHANCES WILL STILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. SINCE IT'S STILL EARLY IN THE MONSOON
SEASON INITIAL STORMS' BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE STRONG OUTFLOW
WINDS. HOWEVER BY THE END OF THE WEEK ITS POSSIBLE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BECOME A THREAT. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS
IS ALSO HINTING AT AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVING THROUGH TO THE SOUTH
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD ENHANCE STORM
ACTIVITY.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 04/00Z.
SCT CLOUDS AT 25K FEET AGL AFTER 03/00Z NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER BECOMING BKN AREA WIDE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. SFC WINDS WESTERLY AT 8-11 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
20 KTS THROUGH 03/02Z, THEN WINDS BECOME LESS THAN 10 KTS AND
TERRAIN DRIVEN. FRIDAY AFTERNOON WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AGAIN
6-10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN
GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES TODAY WHERE LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE 20-FOOT WINDS WILL
BE OUT OF THE WEST 7-12 MPH WITH GUSTS 15-20 MPH EACH AFTERNOON
INTO NEXT WEEK. EXPECT VERY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
MIN RH BELOW 10 PERCENT AT MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. MOISTURE
BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
LEADING TO INCREASED RH VALUES AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER STARTING MONDAY. AFTER
MONDAY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPAND WESTWARD WITH THE BEST
CHANCES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND HIGHER TERRAIN EACH
AFTERNOON NEXT WEEK.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
HARDIN
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