807
FXUS65 KTWC 030931
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
231 AM MST FRI JUL 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY
WEEKEND THEN MOISTURE MOVES IN EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO STORM
CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 1 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY THEN 2 TO
6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED LEADING EDGE
OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
DOUGLAS WHICH WAS LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CA. THESE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
TODAY WITH ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO 0.50"
EAST TO ALMOST 1" WESTERN AREAS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE AT OR A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
TONIGHT: WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF FROM REMNANT DOUGLAS WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE, LIKELY DEVELOPING VIRGA
WEST OF TUCSON. NOT EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE RAIN WITH THE LOW-
LEVELS RATHER DRY.
SATURDAY: AS THE COUNTRY CELEBRATES ITS 250TH BIRTHDAY, THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF MAINLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA. PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE. HIGHS AT OR A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY: WARMER AS THE UPPER HIGH OVER NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY DRIFTS WEST ACROSS EASTERN AZ ON MONDAY. CHANCE OF STORMS
NEAR THE AZ/NM BORDER ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY DAILY SPREAD WEST DURING THIS PERIOD BUT MAINLY BE
FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH. AT THIS TIME, HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE 2 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 04/12Z.
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
FROM SW TO NE THRU 04/00Z AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THRU END OF
VALID PD. ADDITIONAL LAYER OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS BTWN 10K FT AND
15K FT WILL BE INCRG ACROSS THE AREA AFT 04/00Z. SFC WINDS
TERRAIN DRIVEN LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 03/16Z AND THEN AGAIN AFT
04/03Z. AT OTHER TIMES, SFC WINDS WLY/NWLY 6-12 KTS WITH OCNL
GUSTS TO 20 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST 7-12 MPH
WITH GUSTS 15-20 MPH EACH AFTERNOON INTO NEXT WEEK. EXPECT VERY
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TODAY WITH MIN RH BELOW 10 PERCENT AT
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO INCREASED RH VALUES AND A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER
STARTING MONDAY. AFTER MONDAY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPAND
WESTWARD WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
AND HIGHER TERRAIN EACH AFTERNOON NEXT WEEK.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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