834
FXUS65 KTWC 032115
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
215 PM MST FRI JUL 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY
WEEKEND THEN MOISTURE MOVES IN EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO STORM
CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 1 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY THEN 3 TO 8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN FROM THE REMNANTS OF
DOUGLAS IN THE PACIFIC AND WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMER THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE TO JUST
UNDER AN INCH, BUT MOST OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS COULD LEAD TO VIRGA AROUND
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA SATURDAY, BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE GROUND WITH LOW LEVELS STILL VERY DRY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLES SET THE HIGH UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS OR
JUST WEST OF ARIZONA BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 1-3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND TOMORROW BECOMING 3-8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS INCREASE.
BETTER MOISTURE STARTS TO MOVE IN MONDAY THANKS TO THE
POSITIONING OF THE HIGH LEADING TO PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO A
LITTLE OVER AN INCH MONDAY AND 1.2"-1.5" BY MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK. STORM CHANCES START MONDAY MAINLY ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER AND
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK
STORM CHANCES WILL SLOWLY EXPAND WESTWARD WITH TUCSON ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF STORM CHANCES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BEST
CHANCES WILL STILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. SINCE IT'S STILL EARLY IN THE MONSOON
SEASON INITIAL STORMS' BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE STRONG OUTFLOW
WINDS. HOWEVER BY THE END OF THE WEEK ITS POSSIBLE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BECOME A THREAT THANKS TO PWAT VALUES
INCREASING TO NEAR 1.5". THE DETERMINISTIC GFS IS ALSO HINTING
AT AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVING THROUGH TO THE SOUTH MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK. MODELS SHOW MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASING DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD WITH ENSEMBLE MEAN 500 MB WINDS 15-20 KTS. THIS COULD
LEAD TO ENHANCED STORM ACTIVITY AND POSSIBLY SOME OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 05/00Z.
BKN-OVC CLOUDS 25K FT AGL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS BETWEEN 12K FT AND 15K FT AGL INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA
AFTER 04/03Z. SFC WINDS WLY/NWLY 6-10 KTS WITH OCNL GUSTS 15-20
KTS THROUGH 04/03Z, THEN TERRAIN DRIVEN LESS THAN 8 KTS
OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY AFTERNOON WINDS BECOME NWLY AGAIN 6-10 KTS
WITH GUSTS 15-20 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST 7-12 MPH
WITH GUSTS 15-20 MPH EACH AFTERNOON INTO NEXT WEEK. EXPECT VERY
DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH MIN RH BELOW 10 PERCENT AT MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS. MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO INCREASED RH VALUES AND A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER
STARTING MONDAY. AFTER MONDAY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPAND
WESTWARD WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
AND HIGHER TERRAIN EACH AFTERNOON NEXT WEEK.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
HARDIN
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