126
FXUS65 KTWC 041013
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
313 AM MST SAT JUL 4 2026
SYNOPSIS
HAPPY 250TH BIRTHDAY AMERICA. EXPECT MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS DURING THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND THEN DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVES IN EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO STORM CHANCES
MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
1 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY THEN 3 TO 8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
HAPPY 250TH BIRTHDAY AMERICA.
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARIZONA. PWATS HAVE INCREASED FROM 24 HOURS BUT THE LOW
LEVELS REMAIN AWFULLY DRY FOR EARLY JULY. THE MID TO HIGH LEVEL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO VIRGA MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AND THE SLIGHTEST OF CHANCE (10%) OF A DRY THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES NEXT WEEK ARE 1) HOW HOT
WILL IT GET TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND 2) INCREASED DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN NM THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH WEST INTO EASTERN AZ BY MONDAY AND EXPAND ACROSS
THE STATE ON TUESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR THE LOWER
DESERTS POTENTIALLY IN THE 108 TO 112 RANGE WITH MODERATE TO
LOCALIZED MAJOR HEATRISK. HEAT PRODUCTS MAY BE ISSUED BY FUTURE
SHIFT FOR THESE TWO DAYS.
AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS BUILDS WEST INTO EASTERN AZ ON MONDAY,
IT WILL DRAG SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH IT WEST AND BRING A
CHANCE (10-50%) OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/T-STORMS
FROM THE WHITES SOUTH ALONG/NEAR THE AZ/NM STATE LINE.
WITH THE UPPER HIGH MIGRATING INTO WESTERN AZ ON TUESDAY, MID-
LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE NE WHICH MAY MOVE STORMS OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM TUCSON EAST. MAIN THREAT
FROM ANY STORMS WILL BE STRONG/GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND BLOWING
DUST.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH POSSIBLE INVERTED-TROF NEARBY,
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE VERY ACTIVE DAYS WITH MID-LEVEL
STEERING FLOW MOSTLY OUT OF THE NE ALLOWING STORMS TO PROPAGATE
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OUT TO THE LOWER DESERTS. MAIN THREATS
FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE VERY STRONG OUTFLOW WIND/POSSIBLY
SEVERE, BLOWING DUST, AND WITH INCREASED MOISTURE VALUES,
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINERS AND FLASH FLOODING.
8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR JULY 11-17 IS LEANING ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA (33%-50%).
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 05/00Z.
BKN CLOUDS AOA 25K FT AGL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS BETWEEN 12K-15K FT AGL. SLGT CHANCE FOR --SHRA. SFC WINDS
TERRAIN DRIVEN LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 04/16Z AND THEN AGAIN AFT
05/03Z. AT OTHER TIMES, SFC WINDS WLY/NWLY 6-12 KTS WITH OCNL
GUSTS TO 20 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST 7-12 MPH
WITH GUSTS 15-20 MPH EACH AFTERNOON INTO NEXT WEEK. A LITTLE
MOISTURE INCREASE MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A DRY
THUNDERSTORM TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VERY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH MIN RH BELOW 10 PERCENT
AT MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO INCREASED RH
VALUES AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
AZ/NM BORDER STARTING MONDAY. AFTER MONDAY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
EXPAND WESTWARD WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND HIGHER TERRAIN EACH AFTERNOON NEXT WEEK.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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