132
FNUS75 KTWC 101916
FWSTWC
SPOT FORECAST FOR ARAVAIPA CREEK...AZ-DFFM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1216 PM MST FRI JUL 10 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1200 MST ON JULY 10.
DISCUSSION
BREEZY WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND
25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND RHS POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS.
BY THIS EVENING, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE FIRE
WILL LIKELY PUSH AN OUTFLOW THROUGH THE FIRE AREA WITH WINDS SHIFTING
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST, WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. TIMING WOULD BE
7PM TO 10 PM FOR THE WIND SHIFT. GOOD RH RECOVERY TONIGHT IN THE
50 PERCENT RANGE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE TOMORROW, WITH STRONG
GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
CHANCE OF PCPN......5 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....99-102 DEGREES.
MIN HUMIDITY........17-22 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 12 TO 17 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (77000 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (102600 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (119500
KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9100 FT AGL LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 16 KNOTS.
TIME (MST) NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........2 9
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0
TEMP............95 99
RH..............25 19
20 FT WIND......W 11G18 W 14G24
MIX HGT (FT)....6400 9100
TRANSPORT WIND..W 12 W 15
VRATE KT-FT/1K..77 137
VENTRATE CAT....VYGD EXNT
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....75-78 DEGREES.
MAX HUMIDITY........53-56 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 11 TO 16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 22 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 17 MPH EARLY EVENING
SHIFTING TO THE WEST 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (106200 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR
(2900 KNOT-FT).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 15 KNOTS.
TIME (MST) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM
SKY (%).........8 17 29 34
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 10 0 0
TEMP............96 87 82 79
RH..............21 28 38 46
20 FT WIND......W 13G22 SE 8G14 S 7G13 NW 6G10
MIX HGT (FT)....7100 500 500 500
TRANSPORT WIND..W 15 W 9 W 8 W 7
VRATE KT-FT/1K..106 5 4 4
VENTRATE CAT....EXNT POOR POOR POOR
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....98-101 DEGREES.
MIN HUMIDITY........22-25 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 26 MPH IN
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (3600 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO MARGINAL (11700 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON INCREASING TO GOOD (68700 KNOT-FT)
EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
(92700 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4400 FT AGL LATE IN
THE MORNING, THEN INCREASING TO 7100 FT AGL IN
THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 4900 FT AGL LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 7 TO 14 KNOTS.
TIME (MST) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........33 26 28 20
WEATHER COV..... S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR
TSTM COV........ S CHC
CWR.............0 0 0 10
TEMP............76 86 93 97
RH..............54 41 30 23
20 FT WIND......W 6G10 W 10G14 W 11G19 W 11G20
MIX HGT (FT)....500 3000 5200 7000
TRANSPORT WIND..NW 7 W 12 W 12 W 12
VRATE KT-FT/1K..4 36 62 84
VENTRATE CAT....POOR FAIR GOOD VYGD
FORECASTER...MICHAEL
REQUESTED BY...ADC
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2617164.0/TWC
.DELDT 07/10/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL AIDCLOGISTICS@DFFM.AZ.GOV
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