129
FNUS75 KTWC 111903
FWSTWC
SPOT FORECAST FOR JHUS CANYON...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1203 PM MST SAT JUL 11 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1200 MST ON JULY 11.
DISCUSSION
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CHIRICAHUAS TO DEVELOP
BY 1 TO 2 PM WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING.
STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE WEST WITH THE BEST CHANCES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH WITH SOME CAPABLE OF GUSTS TO 60 MPH. HAIL
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. SUNDAY MOST
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST WEST OF THE CHIRICAHUAS
BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR STORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. OUTSIDE OF STORMS WINDS WILL BE 5-10 MPH WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MIN RH WILL BE IN THE 20S WITH
GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....91-94 DEGREES.
MIN HUMIDITY........23-26 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (53000 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
(76500 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......10900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 7 TO 8 KNOTS BECOMING 7 TO 9 KNOTS LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (MST) NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........35 53
WEATHER COV.....S CHC CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........CHC CHANCE
CWR.............30 50
TEMP............89 90
RH..............28 25
20 FT WIND......NE 4G10 NE 6G11
MIX HGT (FT)....6600 10900
TRANSPORT WIND..NE 8 E 7
VRATE KT-FT/1K..53 77
VENTRATE CAT....GOOD VYGD
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EVENING BEFORE 10 PM.
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT DECREASING TO 10 PERCENT AFTER 10 PM.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....62-65 DEGREES.
MAX HUMIDITY........63-66 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS UP TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
SOUTHWEST AFTER 7 PM. AFTER MIDNIGHT TURNING NORTH
NORTHEAST 3 TO 7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (40800 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR (3700
KNOT-FT).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH NORTHWEST 7 TO 10 KNOTS.
TIME (MST) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM
SKY (%).........79 69 47 33
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE
TSTM COV........CHANCE CHANCE
CWR.............60 50 10 10
TEMP............83 72 72 68
RH..............31 54 51 57
20 FT WIND......N 3G10 SW 5G11 W 2G6 N 2G5
MIX HGT (FT)....4100 700 600 500
TRANSPORT WIND..N 10 S 10 W 8 N 9
VRATE KT-FT/1K..41 7 5 5
VENTRATE CAT....GOOD POOR POOR POOR
SUNDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....89-92 DEGREES.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-28 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20
MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (4200 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
(149200 KNOT-FT).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 8 TO 11 KNOTS INCREASING TO 13 TO 17 KNOTS
IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TIME (MST) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........20 3 4 12
WEATHER COV..... S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR
TSTM COV........ S CHC
CWR.............0 0 10 20
TEMP............66 79 87 89
RH..............62 45 33 28
20 FT WIND......NE 2G6 E 6G14 E 7G18 E 9G19
MIX HGT (FT)....500 3100 9200 10300
TRANSPORT WIND..NE 8 E 13 E 17 E 16
VRATE KT-FT/1K..4 41 156 166
VENTRATE CAT....POOR GOOD EXNT EXNT
SUNDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT DECREASING 10 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....62-65 DEGREES.
MAX HUMIDITY........70-73 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
5 TO 8 MPH AFTER 11 PM, THEN BECOMING EAST AGAIN AFTER
5 AM. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (105500 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO
MARGINAL (13400 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO POOR (4600 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
NIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 11 TO 16 KNOTS DECREASING TO 9 TO 10
KNOTS LATE IN THE EVENING, THEN SHIFTING TO THE
EAST 8 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
TIME (MST) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM
SKY (%).........22 60 48 55
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE
TSTM COV........CHANCE S CHC
CWR.............30 20 0 0
TEMP............83 74 71 67
RH..............31 48 55 63
20 FT WIND......SE 6G14 SE 5G12 S 3G6 E 3G6
MIX HGT (FT)....6600 600 500 500
TRANSPORT WIND..E 16 SE 12 SE 10 SE 10
VRATE KT-FT/1K..106 7 5 5
VENTRATE CAT....EXNT POOR POOR POOR
FORECASTER...HARDIN
REQUESTED BY...SARAH TOLSON
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2617222.0/TWC
.DELDT 07/11/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL AZTDC@FIRENET.GOV
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page