103  
FNUS75 KTWC 120023  
FWSTWC  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR JHUS...WFS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ  
523 PM MST SAT JUL 11 2026  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1700 MST ON JULY 11.  
   
DISCUSSION  
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 9 PM  
WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS TO 45 MPH, BRIEF  
HEAVY RAIN, AND LIGHTNING. SUNDAY STORM CHANCES MAINLY STAY WEST  
OF THE CHIRICAHUAS, BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR STORMS  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MONDAY STORM CHANCES RETURN  
WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
WINDS BELOW 8 MPH TONIGHT BECOMING EASTERLY 7 TO 13 MPH SUNDAY INTO  
MONDAY. WINDS MONDAY LOOK TO BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE COMPARED TO  
SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. MIN RH WILL BE IN THE 20S WITH GOOD  
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.  
   
TONIGHT  
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE 9 PM.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT DECREASING TO 0 PERCENT  
OVERNIGHT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....62-65 DEGREES.  
MAX HUMIDITY........63-66 PERCENT.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 7 MPH, BRIEFLY  
SHIFTING TO THE WEST AFTER 8 PM THEN BACK TO  
NORTH NORTHEAST AFTER 3 AM. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (40800 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR (3700  
KNOT-FT).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 9 TO 10 KNOTS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 8  
TO 10 KNOTS LATE IN THE EVENING, THEN SHIFTING  
TO THE NORTH 8 TO 9 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.  
 
TIME (MST) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM  
SKY (%).........75 81 41 32  
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE S CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........CHANCE S CHC  
CWR.............40 20 0 0  
TEMP............83 72 72 68  
RH..............31 54 51 57  
20 FT WIND......N 5G10 SW 5G11 W 2G6 W 2G5  
MIX HGT (FT)....4100 700 600 500  
TRANSPORT WIND..N 10 S 10 W 8 N 9  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..41 7 5 5  
VENTRATE CAT....GOOD POOR POOR POOR  
   
SUNDAY  
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....89-92 DEGREES.  
MIN HUMIDITY........25-28 PERCENT.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20.  
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (4200 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT  
(149200 KNOT-FT).  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 8 TO 11 KNOTS INCREASING TO 13 TO 17 KNOTS  
IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
 
TIME (MST) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM  
SKY (%).........23 4 4 25  
WEATHER COV..... S CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........ S CHC  
CWR.............0 0 0 20  
TEMP............66 79 87 89  
RH..............62 45 33 28  
20 FT WIND......NE 2G6 E 6G14 E 7G18 E 8G18  
MIX HGT (FT)....500 3100 9200 10300  
TRANSPORT WIND..NE 8 E 13 E 17 E 16  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..4 41 156 166  
VENTRATE CAT....POOR GOOD EXNT EXNT  
   
SUNDAY NIGHT  
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE  
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT DECREASING TO 0 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....62-65 DEGREES.  
MAX HUMIDITY........70-73 PERCENT.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH BECOMING EAST UP TO 5  
MPH AFTER 3 AM. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (105500 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR  
(4600 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE NIGHT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......6600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 11 TO 16 KNOTS DECREASING TO 9 TO 10  
KNOTS LATE IN THE EVENING, THEN SHIFTING TO THE  
EAST 8 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.  
 
TIME (MST) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM  
SKY (%).........51 58 48 55  
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE S CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........CHANCE S CHC  
CWR.............30 20 20 30  
TEMP............83 74 71 67  
RH..............31 48 55 63  
20 FT WIND......SE 6G14 SE 5G12 S 3G6 E 1G5  
MIX HGT (FT)....6600 600 500 500  
TRANSPORT WIND..E 16 SE 12 SE 10 SE 10  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..106 7 5 5  
VENTRATE CAT....EXNT POOR POOR POOR  
   
MONDAY  
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 60 PERCENT IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....85-88 DEGREES.  
MIN HUMIDITY........37-40 PERCENT.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH  
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (5500 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD  
(94800 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7000 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST  
AROUND 12 KNOTS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
TIME (MST) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM  
SKY (%).........43 24 40 60  
WEATHER COV..... S CHC CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........ S CHC CHANCE  
CWR.............0 0 20 60  
TEMP............65 76 84 85  
RH..............69 54 41 39  
20 FT WIND......E 4G10 E 10G20 E 9G18 E 11G21  
MIX HGT (FT)....600 4000 6500 6600  
TRANSPORT WIND..E 10 E 14 E 14 SE 13  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..6 56 91 85  
VENTRATE CAT....POOR GOOD VYGD VYGD  
 
 
FORECASTER...HARDIN  
REQUESTED BY...STEVEN JONASSON  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 2617232.0/TWC  
.DELDT 07/11/26  
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0  
.EMAIL AZTDC@FIRENET.GOV  
 
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