693
FXUS65 KTWC 091548
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
848 AM MST SUN AUG 9 2026
SYNOPSIS
EXPECT DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEK ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WITH DAY TO DAY VARIABILITY
IN COVERAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RUN 5 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, THEN AROUND NORMAL DURING THE WORK WEEK.
UPDATE
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WITH LATEST WV SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING EASTERLY FLOW AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DRIER AIR ALOFT NOTED
ON THE WV THAT HAS MOVED INTO COCHISE COUNTIES, WITH GOES TOTAL PWAT
VALUES AROUND 0.7 TO 0.9 INCHES. ELSEWHERE PWAT VALUES RANGE FROM
ABOUT 0.9 INCHES TO AS HIGH AS 1.5 INCHES IN THE WESTERN DESERTS.
THE CAMS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
TODAY, FOCUSING ON TWO AREAS, THE FIRST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OF TUCSON
WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND A SECONDARY
AREA WITH SIMILAR TIMING ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. THESE STORMS
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE WEST TODAY WITH THE TUCSON AREA BEING ON THE
EASTERN EDGE OF STORM ACTIVITY. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS
(LOCALLY SEVERE) MAINLY WEST OF TUCSON WITH POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF
THE STRONGER STORMS AS WELL. CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. NO
UPDATES THIS MORNING.
DISCUSSION
FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL BE
IN A FAVORABLE MONSOON FLOW PATTERN THAT WILL KEEP DAILY CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH DAY-TO-DAY VARIABILITY IN COVERAGE OF STORMS. THERE
WILL BE THE CONTINUED DAILY HAZARDS OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS, BLOWING
DUST AND FLASH FLOODING. WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY
FOR ENHANCED CHANCES FOR INCREASED FLASH FLOODING THREAT. NOT
EVERYONE WILL GET RAIN EVERY DAY THIS WEEK WHICH IS THE MONSOON
IN A NUTSHELL. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN HOT THEN BE
AROUND NORMAL FOR THE WORK WEEK.
FOR TODAY, DRIER AIR THAT HAS PUSHED INTO THE EASTERN ZONES WILL
LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS COCHISE COUNTY. THE MAIN
AREA FOR CONCERN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
WILL BE WEST OF SELLS, WHERE CAMS ARE INDICATING A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AS DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE LOW 60S AND PWATS AROUND 1.5". 09/00Z HREF HAS
NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES OF 10-30% FOR 50+ KNOTS. ADDED PATCHY
DUST TO THE FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN AREAS.
AVIATION
VALID THRU 10/12Z.
SKC TO SCT AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL THIS MORNING.
BTWN 09/18Z AND 10/04Z, ISOLD-WDLY SCTD -SHRA/-TS WITH CLOUDS
8-12K FT AGL, MAINLY WEST OF A KSAD-KOLS LINE. GUSTY ERRATIC
WINDS OF 35-45 KTS POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. OUTSIDE OF
STORMS SFC WINDS WLY/NWLY AT 8-12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON
GUSTS TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SFC WINDS LIGHT AND
TERRAIN DRIVEN AFTER 10/06Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
EXPECT DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS UPCOMING WEEK WITH SOME VARIATION IN COVERAGE
EACH DAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE 15-30
PERCENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN 20-40 PERCENT NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES 2-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS,
WINDS TERRAIN DRIVEN TO AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON
GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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