165
FXUS65 KTWC 101606
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
906 AM MST MON AUG 10 2026
UPDATE
THE INGREDIENTS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ARE HERE. CURRENT PWS ARE A BIT OF A MIXED BAG SPANNING
FROM LESS THAN 1 INCH IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS INCLUDING GRAHAM,
GREENLEE, AND COCHISE COUNTIES THANKS TO THE DRY AIR FROM NEW
MEXICO. OTHERWISE, PWS ARE MORE FAVORABLE AT 1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES
WITH TUCSON ON THE LOWER END OF THE RANGE AND WESTERN PIMA
COUNTY AND TOHONO O'ODHAM NATION THE HIGHER END. CURRENT CAMS
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AREAS TUCSON WESTWARD FOR THE BEST CHANCES
FOR STORMS. TODAY CONTINUES TO LOOK TO BE A TRANSITION DAY FOR
A SEVERE WIND THREAT AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT, MEANING THAT WE
CAN SEE A MIX OF BOTH TODAY. THE 10/12Z HREF CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT THESE AREAS WITH THE MIXED THREAT. THERE IS A FAIRLY
BIG AREA OF 10% PROBABILITY OF 50 KTS IN 40 KM IN THESE AREAS,
WHICH DOES HAVE THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOFTING UP AREAS OF BLOWING
DUST. THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF BEING LONGER-LIVED TODAY AS
THERE IS 20-30 KTS OF WIND SHEAR, ALLOWING FOR SEPARATED
UPDRAFTS AND POSSIBLY 1 INCH DIAMETER HAIL. AS FOR THE FLASH
FLOODING THREAT, WITH HOW MUCH AVAILABLE PWS THERE IS ANY STORM
IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL, ALLOWING FOR
RUNNING WASHES, LOW WATER CROSSINGS, AND FLOODED ROADWAYS. FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TODAY FROM 2 PM TO 10 PM FOR AREAS
TUCSON WESTWARD. AS FOR TIMING, STORMS LOOK TO INITIATE IN
SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AT 1/2 PM, THEN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE 3/4PM AND MOVE NW OUT OF THE AREA AROUND
10/11 PM. THE HRRR IS CONTINUING TO LATCH ONTO OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AND
OVER TOHONO O'ODHAM NATION.
SYNOPSIS
EXPECT DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MUCH OF THIS WEEK. WHILE THERE WILL BE DAY TO DAY VARIABILITY,
MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAYS. STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH LESS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL LOWERING TO AROUND 3 TO 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM AGAIN INTO THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
WELL SUNDAY WAS DEFINITELY MORE ACTIVE THAN SATURDAY
AND THIS ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AT
LEAST THURSDAY BEFORE A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS A
SIGNIFICANT DOWNTURN IS DAILY STORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL SEE HEIGHTENED DAILY THREATS FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, BLOWING DUST, AND HEAVY RAIN
LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING. THE SIGNAL SURELY IS LEANING TOWARD
DAILY HEAVY RAIN CHANCES MOST OF THIS WEEK WITH PWATS BETWEEN
1.20" AND 1.70". WPC HAS PLACED SE AZ UNDER SLGT CHANCE OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (ER) TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WE CURRENTLY
HAVE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA LATER
TODAY BUT MAY HAVE TO THINK HOISTING FLASH FLOOD WATCHES FOR
OTHER DAYS THIS WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT ARE HIT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS TODAY AND TUESDAY, THEN
TO ABOUT 3 TO 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
WITH WARMING THEREAFTER TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY/
VALID THRU 11/12Z.
DEBRIS CLOUDS, MAINLY ABOVE 15K FT AGL, DECREASING THRU 10/14Z.
BTWN 10/18Z AND 11/06Z, SCT -SHRA/-TSRA WITH CLOUDS 8-12K FT
AGL. ISOLD VSBYS 1SM +TSRA. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS OF 35-50 KTS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. OUTSIDE OF STORMS SFC WINDS
WLY/NWLY AT 8-12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 20 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFT 11/06Z, ISOLD -SHRA MAINLY W OF
KTUS DIMINISHING. LOWER CLOUD DECKS ALSO DIMINISHING. SFC WINDS
LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN AFTER 11/06Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
EXPECT DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LESS COVERAGE FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE 20-40 PERCENT
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOWERING TO AROUND 15-30 PERCENT
THEREAFTER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY,
DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THEN WARMING
AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS TERRAIN
DRIVEN TO AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 20
MPH.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR AZZ501>506-514-515.
UPDATE...JT
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