351
FXUS65 KTWC 111158 CCA
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
457 AM MST TUE AUG 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
EXPECT DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH DAY TO DAY VARIABILITY IN STORM COVERAGE.
A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A DOWNTURN IN DAILY
STORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY, THEN 3 TO 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TOMORROW
AND THURSDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM AGAIN INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
RADAR WAS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE ALOFT. SOUTH OF THE BORDER
A DECAYING MCS LIKELY SENDING OUTFLOWS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
WHICH WILL DEVELOP ISOLATED STORMS NEAR/ALONG THE INTL BORDER
THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE SHOWERS THIS MORNING HAVE HAD SOME
PRETTY GOOD RAINFALL RATES, UP TO 1"/HR. THE CAMS THIS MORNING
ARE ABSOLUTELY LOST WITH WHAT IS CURRENTLY GOING ON. ARGH.
ONCE THESE SHOWERS/STORMS END LATER THIS MORNING, WE ARE LOOKING
AT ANOTHER ACTIVE MID-AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH HEAVY
RAIN AND LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND GUSTS THE MAIN CONCERNS. FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM FROM TUCSON EAST.
POTENTIAL AGAIN EXISTS FOR ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIODS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY: FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO TURN OUT OF SOUTH WITH UPPER
HIGH MOVING INTO CENTRAL TX AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING INTO
THE WEST COAST. STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND FOR CONTINUED
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL THE USUAL
THREATS ASSOCIATED WITH THEM.
THURSDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL TROF TO OUR WEST TURNS THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST AND START TO IMPORT SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL AROUND FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH STORM MOTION NOW TO THE NORTHEAST
INSTEAD OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE PAST WEEK OR SO.
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND: SIGNIFICANT DOWNTURN IN DAILY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AS DRIER AIR PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT BEST, AND MOSTLY EAST OF TUCSON
DURING THESE 3 DAYS.
MONDAY: FLOW ALOFT RETURNS TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST RESULTING IN A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN STORMS. NOTHING SPECIAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY, THEN BE ABOUT 3 TO 6
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH WARMING
THEREAFTER TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
VALID THRU 12/12Z.
WDLY SCT -SHRA/-TSRA WITH CLOUDS 8-12K FT AGL THRU 11/17Z THEN
SCT -SHRA/TS AFT 11/21Z AND CONTG THRU END OF VALID PD. ISOLD
VSBYS 1SM +TSRA. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS OF 35-50 KTS POSSIBLE WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORM. OUTSIDE OF STORMS SFC WINDS WLY/NWLY AT 8-12
KTS WITH OCNL GUSTS TO 20 KTS THIS AFTN AND EVENING. SFC WINDS
LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN AFTER 12/06Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
EXPECT DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LESS COVERAGE FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE 20-40 PERCENT
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOWERING TO AROUND 15-30 PERCENT
THEREAFTER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY,
DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THEN WARMING
AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS TERRAIN
DRIVEN TO AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 20
MPH.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR AZZ503-504-507>509-511>514.
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