826
FXUS65 KTWC 141843
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1143 AM MST FRI AUG 14 2026
SYNOPSIS
EXPECT A DOWNTURN IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STARTING
TODAY AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. HOT
CONDITIONS THEN RETURN LATE THIS WEEKEND WITH AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH
IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA MONDAY THOUGH WEDNESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK. A MORE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PATTERN RETURNS THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A GRADUAL DOWNTURN IN THE COVERAGE AND RELATIVE
INTENSITY OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS STARTING TODAY. HOWEVER, ANY STORMS THAT DO
FORM WILL CONTINUE TO PRESENT A CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
(0.75 TO 1 INCH PER HOUR), FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND POSSIBLY EVEN
GUSTY OUTFLOWS TO AROUND 35 MPH. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE ALREADY
FORMED WITH ADEQUATE INSTABILITY (500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE) IN
PLACE AS CIN ERODES FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA. THE LOWER
PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN SATURATED DESPITE DRIER AIR
PUNCHING IN ALOFT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER ESTIMATED VIA
SATELLITE BETWEEN AROUND 1 TO 1.4 INCHES WHICH IS SUPPORTIVE OF
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS.
TOMORROW AND SATURDAY STORM CHANCES DECREASE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
(10-20%) MAINLY FOCUSED FROM THE TUCSON METRO EAST AND SOUTH AND
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DRIER AIR ALOFT COULD ACT TO SUPPRESS
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT SURFACE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLAY. ALTHOUGH I ANTICIPATE THERE TO BE
NOTABLY LESS COVERAGE THAN TODAY, THE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DOES PRESENT A LITTLE BIT OF UNCERTAINTY.
AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS, HEAT COMES BACK INTO PLAY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH HEATRISK INCREASING TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. DEFINITELY SOMETHING WE CONTINUE TO WATCH AS THE
PATTERN EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN EXTREME HEAT
WATCH IN CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES RIGHT NOW ARE FORECAST TO
TOP OUT AROUND 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (OR ROUGHLY 104 TO
109 DEGREE RANGE WITHIN THE EXTREME HEAT WATCH). TEMPERATURES
MAY NOT FEEL SHOCKINGLY DIFFERENT THAN ANY OTHER HOT SUMMER DAY
IN SOUTHEAST ARIZONA, BUT THIS IS THE POINT IN THE SEASON WHERE
WE EXPECT NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TO DIP JUST BELOW 100
DEGREES IN THE TUCSON METRO.
EARLY NEXT WEEK CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO RETURN AS AN
EASTERLY WAVE MOVES OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS WOULD BRING SOME
ADDED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS BACK INTO PLAY SUPPORTING A POTENTIAL
UPTICK IN STORM ACTIVITY MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON. THE ADDED
MOISTURE COULD ACTUALLY END UP MODERATING THOSE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH TEMPERATURES, BUT STORM ACTIVITY FOR NOW LOOKS TO REMAIN
FOCUSED MOSTLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TUCSON METRO UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 16/00Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS 8-12K FT AGL THROUGH 15/03Z BECOMING FEW-SCT AROUND
12-15K FT AGL THEREAFTER. ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA CENTERED MOSTLY OVER
THE TERRAIN THROUGH AROUND 15/02Z. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE
NEAR TSRA WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30-35 KTS. OTHERWISE, THROUGH
15/03Z, SFC WINDS WLY/NWLY AT 7-11 KTS WITH OCNL GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KTS. BETWEEN 15/03Z AND 15/17Z SFC WINDS LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN.
TOMORROW, SFC WINDS NWLY PICKING UP AGAIN AFTER 15/17Z AT 8-12 KTS
WITH OCNL GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST
WILL BEGIN IMPORTING NOTABLY DRIER AIR INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN DOWNTURN IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW OF DAYS. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STORMS STILL EXISTS THIS WEEKEND FOCUSED MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
TUCSON AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A MORE ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN
LOOKS TO RETURN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL BE 20-40 PERCENT TODAY LOWERING TO AROUND 15-30
PERCENT THEREAFTER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY, THEN
WARMING UP AGAIN TO ABOVE NORMAL LATE THIS WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS WILL BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AROUND 10 MPH
WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
AZZ501-502-504>506-509.
DVS
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK, X, YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page