745
FXUS65 KTWC 050938
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
238 AM MST SAT SEP 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE
PERIOD LATER NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL
LEADING TO AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WILL
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN NEAR NORMAL AND A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
CURRENTLY THERE IS FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS IN WESTERN PIMA
COUNTY AS WELL AS COCHISE, GRAHAM, AND GREENLEE COUNTIES. OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO COME INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY, STORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO FORM WITH THE MID LEVEL
WARMING AND STILL LACK OF OVERALL LIFT/FORCING. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION IS IN THE SKY ISLANDS THANKS TO OROGRAPHIC LIFTING.
THE LATEST CAMS SUPPORT THIS AS WELL WITH VERY LIMITED ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUE TO LOOK
VERY LIMITED, WITH THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON,
WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY IS. WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE,
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING CONTINUE TO BE
THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WITH THESE STORMS.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL HAVE A FEW
SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLOWLY
DRIFT WESTWARD, SHIFTING THE FLOW ALOFT FROM SW TO SE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. WITH THIS SHIFT, THE STORM CHANCES BEGIN TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA IN THE
MID TO LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF NORMAL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, THEN DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 06/12Z.
FEW TO SCT CLOUDS 7-12K FT AGL, MAINLY KTUS EASTWARD AND PASSING
SCT TO BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS 20K FT AGL. ISOLATED TSRA/SHRA 05/18Z THRU
06/03Z MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KTUS. NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORM
WILL HAVE STRONG GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND BRIEF LOWERING
OF CEILINGS. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM WINDS, SFC WINDS WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY 6-12 KTS FROM 05/18 THRU 06/06Z. LIGHT AND
TERRAIN DRIVEN AT OTHER TIMES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
EXPECT DAILY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AT LEAST INTO EARLY WEEK. THERE WILL BE SOME VARIATION IN
COVERAGE DAY TO DAY, BUT EXPECT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY FROM
TUCSON EASTWARD. HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL TO A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES MAINLY 20 TO 45 PERCENT IN THE VALLEYS AND 30 TO
60 PERCENT IN THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 15 MPH AND TERRAIN DRIVEN THROUGH THE
WEEK.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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