390
FNUS75 KTWC 101947
FWSTWC
SPOT FORECAST FOR GARDNER PILE BURN...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1247 PM MST THU SEP 10 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0600 MST ON SEPTEMBER 11.
DISCUSSION
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS ANTICIPATED
PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE STRONGEST STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY/ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS
TO AROUND 45 MPH, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS,
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE AROUND 40 TO 45
PERCENT WITH STRONG OVERNIGHT RECOVERY TO AROUND 80 TO 85 PERCENT.
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....86-89 DEGREES.
MIN HUMIDITY........41-44 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL INCREASING 5800 FT AGL
IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 3600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 8 KNOTS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST 6 TO 10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (2500 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO
GOOD (40700 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (MST) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........36 31 52 61
WEATHER COV..... CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........ S CHC CHANCE
CWR.............10 10 30 40
TEMP............65 78 85 85
RH..............89 63 45 45
20 FT WIND......SW 6G8 W 4G8 NW 6G11 W 7G14
MIX HGT (FT)....500 2500 5100 5100
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 8 NW 7 NW 6 W 8
VRATE KT-FT/1K..4 18 31 41
VENTRATE CAT....POOR MRGL FAIR GOOD
FRIDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....64-67 DEGREES.
MAX HUMIDITY........83-88 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8 TO 10 KNOTS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 5
TO 9 KNOTS IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MARGINAL (17400 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO POOR (8000 KNOT-FT) OVERNIGHT.
TIME (MST) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM
SKY (%).........54 64 43 59
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE S CHC S CHC S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........CHANCE S CHC S CHC S CHC
CWR.............30 20 10 20
TEMP............79 72 68 66
RH..............55 70 82 87
20 FT WIND......W 6G14 SW 6G10 SW 6G10 SW 5G7
MIX HGT (FT)....1700 800 500 500
TRANSPORT WIND..W 10 S 9 SW 7 SW 7
VRATE KT-FT/1K..17 7 3 3
VENTRATE CAT....MRGL POOR POOR POOR
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....86-89 DEGREES.
MIN HUMIDITY........45-48 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 4 TO 5 KNOTS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 3
TO 6 KNOTS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (2500 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO
FAIR (22100 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN
DECREASING TO MARGINAL (9100 KNOT-FT) LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (MST) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........93 21 68 68
WEATHER COV..... CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........ S CHC CHANCE
CWR.............10 10 50 50
TEMP............65 75 85 85
RH..............92 69 47 46
20 FT WIND......S 3G5 SW 2G5 NW 3G7 NW 4G11
MIX HGT (FT)....500 2100 5200 4300
TRANSPORT WIND..S 5 SW 4 N 3 W 5
VRATE KT-FT/1K..3 8 16 21
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR MRGL FAIR
FORECASTER...VAN STRATTEN
REQUESTED BY...WES GUTWEILER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2621213.2/TWC
.DELDT 09/10/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL WESLEY.GUTWEILER@USDA.GOV
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