781
FNUS75 KTWC 111843
FWSTWC
SPOT FORECAST FOR GARDNER PILE BURN...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1143 AM MST FRI SEP 11 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0600 MST ON SEPTEMBER 12.
DISCUSSION
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THIS WEEKEND. EARLIEST START TO STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE BETWEEN
NOON AND 2 PM, THEN DISSIPATING A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNSET. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. OUTSIDE
OF STORMS WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 10 MPH OUT OF THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST. MIN RH WILL BE AROUND 45 PERCENT WITH VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES AROUND 85 PERCENT.
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....86-89 DEGREES.
MIN HUMIDITY........46-49 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE MORNING,
THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5600 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 3 TO 5 KNOTS EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN SHIFTING
TO THE WEST NORTHWEST 4 TO 8 KNOTS LATE IN THE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1700 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO FAIR (21200 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (MST) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........47 24 60 71
WEATHER COV..... S CHC CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE.... NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV....... S CHC CHANCE
CWR.............0 0 20 60
TEMP............65 77 84 82
RH..............94 66 49 51
20 FT WIND......SW 3G5 N 2G5 N 3G6 W 4G10
MIX HGT (FT)....500 2100 5000 4200
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 4 N 4 NE 4 SW 6
VRATE KT-FT/1K..2 9 20 25
VENTRATE CAT....POOR MRGL FAIR FAIR
SATURDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE 10 PM.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT DECREASING TO 0 PERCENT AFTER 10 PM.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....64-67 DEGREES.
MAX HUMIDITY........86-89 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST SOUTHWEST 6 TO 7 KNOTS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
4 TO 5 KNOTS AFTER 2 AM.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1600 KNOT-FT).
TIME (MST) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM
SKY (%).........67 76 34 34
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE
TSTM COV........CHANCE S CHC
CWR.............30 20 0 0
TEMP............79 72 68 67
RH..............55 70 80 82
20 FT WIND......W 4G10 SW 3G6 SW 3G5 SW 2G5
MIX HGT (FT)....1000 500 500 500
TRANSPORT WIND..NW 7 S 6 W 6 W 5
VRATE KT-FT/1K..7 3 3 3
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR POOR
SUNDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....88-91 DEGREES.
MIN HUMIDITY........40-43 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH IN THE
MORNING, THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST 5
TO 9 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6200 FT AGL IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST NORTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS SHIFTING TO THE
WEST SOUTHWEST 5 TO 7 KNOTS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (2600 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO MARGINAL (9500 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON INCREASING TO FAIR (25800 KNOT-FT).
TIME (MST) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........30 18 63 63
WEATHER COV..... S CHC CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........ S CHC CHANCE
CWR.............0 0 20 50
TEMP............65 77 87 87
RH..............87 62 42 42
20 FT WIND......S 2G4 SE 3G5 S 5G8 W 7G12
MIX HGT (FT)....500 2400 6000 5600
TRANSPORT WIND..E 5 E 4 S 5 W 6
VRATE KT-FT/1K..3 10 30 33
VENTRATE CAT....POOR MRGL FAIR FAIR
FORECASTER...HARDIN
REQUESTED BY...WES GUTWEILER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2621213.3/TWC
.DELDT 09/11/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL WESLEY.GUTWEILER@USDA.GOV
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