816
FXUS65 KTWC 121000
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
300 AM MST SAT SEP 12 2026
SYNOPSIS
A MORE TYPICAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
STORMS IS FORECAST THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN NEAR NORMAL AND A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PREVAILED EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH A FEW STORMS OCCURRING WEST OF PICACHO PEAK.
THIS WEEKEND WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE USUAL THREATS, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.
MONDAY, AT THIS TIME, LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE POSSIBLY
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.
QPF IS TRENDING UP WITH WPC PLACING PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA UNDER SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2"/HR LEADING
TO THE INCREASED RISK OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. TIME WILL
TELL AS ITS DIFFICULT TO TIME DISTURBANCES THIS FAR OUT.
WILL KEEP DAILY THREAT OF AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS TUESDAY
THRU FRIDAY WITH DAY-TO-DAY CHANGES IN AREAL COVERAGE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY BE AROUND NORMAL FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS.
AVIATION
VALID THRU 13/12Z.
SCT-BKN 6K-9K FT AGL. ISOLD -SHRA/TS W OF KTUS TIL 12/15Z THEN
SCT SHRA/TSRA BTWN 12/18Z TO 13/04Z. SFC WINDS TERRAIN DRIVEN
AND LESS THAN 10 KTS TIL 12/17Z AND AGAIN AFT 13/05Z. AT OTHER
TIMES, WLY/NWLY AT 6-10 KTS AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
A TYPICAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS
IS FORECAST THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN NEAR NORMAL AND A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
MIN RH VALUES MAINLY 20 TO 45 PERCENT IN THE VALLEYS AND 35 TO
65 PERCENT IN THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT WEEK. RH RECOVERIES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN LESS THAN 15 MPH AND TERRAIN DRIVEN. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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